Study shows the increase of elderly in China
will quadruple, from 10 percent today to 42 percent by 2100.
AFP
Policymakers fretting over the costs of caring for the aged will
face their greatest challenge in the next two decades, although the
burden should ease towards the end of the century.
So says a study which suggests that the much-feared crisis of
aging of the world's population is already starting to bite, as the
post-World War II Baby Boomers shuffle into retirement, inflicting
a heavy hit on budgets in developed countries.
The percentage of gray heads in the world's population will
increase rapidly over the next 20 years, although this acceleration
will peak in different regions at different times.
Japan is already nearing the period when the proportion of aging
people in its population is starting to quickly surge.
North America, Europe, China and the countries of the former
Soviet Union will follow sometime between 2020 and 2030, according
to the paper, published on Sunday by the British journal
Nature.
South Asia will go through a decade of rapid aging beginning in
2035, the Middle East in 2040, and sub-Saharan Africa at
mid-century.
"It is really important for policymakers to take these figures
into account," says one of the authors, Warren Sanderson of the
State University of New York at Stony Brook.
Most demographic projections fail to acknowledge nuances about
how quickly a population ages, but the implications are
far-reaching for healthcare, where costs rise dramatically towards
the end of life, he says.
At present, 10 percent of the world's population is over 60;
this will slowly rise to 13 percent by 2020 but leap to 17 percent
by 2030.
After then it will continue to climb gradually to 32 percent by
2100.
In China, the increase will quadruple, from 10 percent today to
42 percent by 2100, whereas nearly half the population in Western
Europe - 46 percent - will be over 60 by century's end, compared
with 20 percent today, according to the study.
By these yardsticks, future generations would appear to be
doomed to carrying a huge social burden.
"People look at those numbers and they get very scared, thinking
that their healthcare expenditures are going to explode," says
Sanderson.
But, he says, the biggest challenge will fall before 2030 for
developed countries and by 2050 elsewhere, because so many people
will age so quickly in the coming years.
Paradoxically, the health-cost crisis could be relatively easier
to manage in the decades after that.
Despite the larger proportion of elderly, many of the over 60s
in the latter half of this century are likely to be healthy and
will not need to go to the doctor. Medical care becomes most
expensive in the last few years of life, and not before.
Some studies have calculated that someone who is 65 in 2100 can
expect to live beyond 90.
"There are two ways to look at age: One is how many birthdays
you have already had, and the other is how many you expect to have
in the future," Sanderson explains.
Instead of looking at the percentage of people aged over 60 -
today's typical benchmark for old age - we should look at the
percentage of people whose life expectancy is 15 years or less. By
2100, nearly a third will be aged over 16, but only 16 percent will
be in this final, costly stage.
"Looked at this way, the figures are rather reassuring," he
says.
(China Daily via AFP January 23, 2008)
