China's stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter highlights both the resilience of the economy and the efficacy of the massive stimulus plan.
The Chinese authorities certainly deserve credit for their swift and smart policy responses to the worst global recession in many decades. But they should be cautious about putting too much faith in hopes of a sustained recovery before the world economy shows firm signs of revival. Latest statistics indicate that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rebounded from 6.1 percent in the first quarter - the lowest in about a decade - to 7.9 percent in the second quarter, laying a solid foundation for meeting the year's target of 8 percent.
While most other countries are still looking for green shoots, such a strong rebound in the world's third largest economy is particularly inspiring. It shows that, after being pulled down by the global export slump for a while, the Chinese economy is quickly getting back on track to assume its role as an increasingly important growth engine for the world economy.
In the first half of this year, domestic consumption and investment respectively contributed to 3.8 percentage points and 6.2 percentage points of the country's GDP growth while negative growth of net export pulled that down by 2.9 percentage points.
If China continues with its shift away from dependence on exports for growth, its growth led by domestic demand would go a long way in addressing the global imbalance -- which is one of the key underlying causes of the global crisis.
However, as encouraging as it is, the better-than-expected performance of the Chinese economy should not be allowed to raise false expectations that the road ahead would be any less bumpy.
The combination of massive infrastructure investment and a slew of fiscal stimulus to boost consumption have so far worked wonders in making China the first major country to emerge from the global downturn.
Yet, to recover from the current crisis and go forward, the Chinese authorities need to press the advantages of those smart counter-crisis policies to the maximum. Only then would the ongoing recovery as well as expeditious structural changes for long-term development get cemented.
Challenges abound. The country's record loan growth has already fueled fears that inflation may return sooner than expected though the consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, remains negative.
The chances are also high that the country can turn the crisis into an opportunity for embracing a more balanced and sustainable growth pattern.
(China Daily July 17, 2009)