China's pork market might undergo dramatic fluctuations next year because of a growing pig surplus, a senior agriculture official said yesterday.

The comments by Wang Zhicai, the Ministry of Agriculture's livestock husbandry division director, came at a time when the tight pork supply is easing.

The country had weathered months of skyrocketing pork prices since the blue ear virus spread throughout the country's pig population last year.

"Factors that may affect stable pig production in the aftermath have become increasingly apparent," Shanghai Securities News quoted Wang as saying last week.

While the pig population's rapid increase might lead to surplus pork supplies, rising feedstuff costs might diminish the industry's profitability.

"Without the adoption of proper measures, this might lead to a new wave of market fluctuations," Wang said.

China's pork prices had almost doubled since last summer because of rising costs, shrinking supplies and blue ear's spread.

But the country's pig supply levels have rebounded through government subsidies, lowering pork prices.

Industry statistics show there were about 470 million pigs in the first half of the year, about a 10 percent increase over the same period of 2007.

Beijing-based market analyst Yi Mingqi believed the pork market would be saturated by the end of the year. Yi predicted prices would spike around Spring Festival before hitting a low point in the second season of 2009.

Pig farmers should decrease the numbers of female pigs ahead of time to prevent further price nosedives.

The Ministry of Agriculture recently said the pork price has been continuously dropping since January, and prices have declined 13 percent on average since then.

The current average price in major markets is about 20 yuan per kg, down about 3 yuan from January.

The ministry said pig farmers could currently make a profit of 160 yuan per 100 kg on average - less than half the 400 yuan they could earn at the peak season at the end of 2007.

China consumes an average of about 50 million tons of pork annually but only consumed 42 million tons last year due to the shortage.

The figure is expected to be 46 million this year.

(China Daily September 15, 2008)