China's grain output will grow continuously this year but income
growth for farmers will slow due to a disproportionately small rise
in crop prices, a think-tank research team forecasted yesterday in
Beijing.
Because of favorable weather last winter and this spring,
farmers are expected to yield a total of 480 million tons of grain
this year, up from 469 million tons in 2004.
The growth of farmers' income, however, will slow to 5 percent
this year from last year's 6.8 percent - the fastest annual pick-up
since 1997.
"Slowdown of income growth rate is very much possible because
there is little room for crop prices, which are already relatively
high, to further increase," the team concluded in the "Green Book
of China's Rural Economy" which was published yesterday.
In the annually published research-based book, the team from the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and National Bureau of
Statistics summarized last year's achievements and problems
regarding rural community development and submitted policy
suggestions for the coming year.
All the senior experts involved in policy-making expressed their
concerns for farmers' income growth at yesterday's publishing
ceremony. They pointed out a steady jump in expenditure on goods
such as fertilizer and seeds but a sluggish increase, or even a
decline, in crop prices.
"Their expenditures are increasing but crop prices are unlikely
to go up any further this year," said Ma Xiaohe, president of the
Industrial Economy Research Institute under the National
Development and Reform Commission.
Ma forecasted that this year Chinese farmers are likely to see
the income gap between themselves and urbanities widen, despite a
slight narrowing during 2003-04.
Average farmers' per capita income reached 2,936 yuan (US$353.7)
in 2004, whilst that of urban residents was 3.21 times more at
9,422 yuan (US$1,135) a slight decrease from 3.23 times more in
2003.
The team also contributed the continuous increase in harvests to
the central government's determination to tap productivity in rural
regions and the enthusiasm shown by farmers in planting crops.
China's total grain output last year was the highest since
1997.
(China Daily April 14, 2005)