Many of Indonesia's islands may be swallowed up by the sea if
world leaders fail to find a way to halt rising sea levels at this
week's climate change conference on the resort island of Bali.
Doomsters take this dire warning by Indonesian scientists a step
further and predict that by 2035, the Indonesian capital's airport
will be flooded by sea water and rendered useless; and by 2080, the
tide will be lapping at the steps of Jakarta's imposing Dutch-era
Presidential palace which sits 10 km inland (about 6 miles).
An aerial view of an
unnamed Indonesian island in Riau province October 6, 2007. Many of
Indonesia's islands may be swallowed up by the sea if world leaders
fail to find a way to halt rising sea levels at a climate change
conference on the resort island of Bali. The Bali conference from
December 3-14 is aimed at finding a successor to the Kyoto
Protocol, which expires in 2012, on cutting climate warming carbon
emissions. [Agencies]
The Bali conference is aimed at finding a successor to the Kyoto
Protocol, which expires in 2012, on cutting climate warming carbon
emissions. With over 17,000 islands, many at risk of being washed
away, Indonesians are anxious to see an agreement reached and
quickly implemented that will keep rising seas at bay.
Just last week, tides burst through sea walls, cutting a key
road to Jakarta's international airport until officials were able
to reinforce coastal barricades.
"Island states are very vulnerable to sea level rise and very
vulnerable to storms. Indonesia ... is particularly vulnerable,"
Nicholas Stern, author of an acclaimed report on climate change,
said on a visit to Jakarta earlier this year.
Even large islands are at risk as global warming might shrink
their land mass, forcing coastal communities out of their homes and
depriving millions of a livelihood.
The island worst hit would be Java, which accounts for more than
half of Indonesia's 226 million people. Here rising sea levels
would swamp three of the island's biggest cities near the coast --
Jakarta, Surabaya and Semarang -- destroying industrial plants and
infrastructure.
"Tens of millions of people would have to move out of their
homes. There is no way this will happen without conflict,"
Environment Minister Rachmat Witoelar said recently.
"The cost would be very high. Imagine, it's not just about
building better infrastructure, but we'd have to relocate people
and change the way people live," added Witoelar, who has said that
Indonesia could lose 2,000 of its islands by 2030 if sea levels
continue to rise.
Indonesian girls walk along
Marunda beach in Jakarta November 30, 2007. If world leaders fail
to agree at a summit in Bali this week to an agreement that halts
rising sea levels due to global warming, many of Indonesia's
islands will be wiped out completely. [Agencies]
Crunch Time At Bali
Environmentalists say this week's climate change meeting in Bali
will be crunch time for threatened coastlines and islands as
delegates from nearly 190 countries meet to hammer out a new treaty
on global warming.
Several small island nations including Singapore, Fiji,
Kiribati, Tuvalu and Caribbean countries have raised the alarm over
rising sea levels which could wipe them off the map.
The Maldives, a cluster of 1,200 islands renowned for its luxury
resorts, has asked the international community to address climate
change so it does not sink into a watery grave.
According to a UN climate report, temperatures are likely to
rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 degrees Celsius (2.0 and 11.5 degrees
Fahrenheit) and sea levels by between 18 cm and 59 cm (seven and 23
inches) this century.
Under current greenhouse gas emission levels, Indonesia could
lose about 400,000 sq km of land mass by 2080, including about 10
percent of Papua, and 5 percent of both Java and Sumatra on the
northern coastlines, said Armi Susandi, a meteorologist at the
Bandung Institute of Technology..
Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous country, has faced
intense pressure over agricultural land for decades.
Susandi, who has researched the impact of climate change on
Indonesia, estimated sea levels would rise by an average of 0.5 cm
a year until 2080, while the submersion rate in Jakarta, which lies
just above sea level, would be higher at 0.87 cm a year.
A study by the UK-based International Institute for Economy and
Development (IIED) said at least 8 out of 92 of the outermost small
islands that make up the country's borders are vulnerable.
Too Many Islands to Count
Less than half of Indonesia's islands are inhabited and many are
not even named. Now, the authorities are hastily counting the
coral-fringed islands before it is too late.
Disappearing islands and coastlines would not only change the
Indonesian map, but could also restrict access to mineral resources
situated in the most vulnerable spots, Susandi said.
He estimates that land loss alone would cost Indonesia 5 percent
of its GDP without taking into account the loss of property and
livelihood as millions migrate from low-lying coastlines to cities
and towns on higher ground.
There are 42 million people in Indonesia living in areas less
than 10 meters above the average sea level, who could be acutely
affected by rising sea levels, the IIED study showed.
A separate study by the United Nations Environment Programme in
1992 showed in two districts in Java alone, rising waters could
deprive more than 81,000 farmers of their rice fields or prawn and
fish ponds, while 43,000 farm labourers would lose their job.
One solution is to cover Indonesia's fragile beaches with
mangroves, the first line of defence against sea level rise, which
can break big waves and hold back soil and silt that damage coral
reefs.
A more expensive alternative is to erect multiple concrete walls
on the coastlines, as the United States has done to break the
tropical storms that hit its coast, Susandi said.
Some areas, including the northern shores of Jakarta, are
already fitted with concrete sea barriers, but they are often
damaged or too low to block rising waters and big waves such as the
ones that hit Jakarta in November.
"It will be like permanent flooding," Susandi said. "By 2050,
about 24 percent of Jakarta will disappear," possibly even forcing
the capital to move to Bandung, a hill city 180 km east of
Jakarta.
(China Daily via Agencies December 4, 2007)
