Shanghai's carbon emission volume is estimated to reach seven
times its current level by 2020 if the city government does not
take environmental protection measures, says a report from the
Tongji University yesterday.
Energy consumption in the city creates 58.05 million tons of
carbon emissions every year of which 90 percent are caused by
industry and business rather than everyday household
consumption.
Coal burning is the largest carbon emission source, accounting
for 57 percent of the total.
The green areas, farmlands and wetlands around the city can
absorb about five million tons of carbons every year. This puts the
city's net carbon emission volume at 0.58 ton per 10,000 yuan
(US$1,351) of GDP in 2005, the report said.
With an annual GDP growth rate of about 10 percent and an energy
efficiency at the current level, researchers said the city's carbon
emissions are expected to exceed 350 million tons by 2020.
"Clearly Shanghai is facing extremely high pressures over carbon
emissions which are a major cause of the greenhouse effect and
global warming," said Li Fengting, associate dean of Tongji's
institute for environment and sustainable development.
Sponsored by HSBC China, Tongji researchers launched a regional
carbon emission studies program in Shanghai and another four cities
in the Yangtze River Delta, including Suzhou, Wuxi, Ningbo and
Nantong.
The first phase of the two-year program was carried out in
Shanghai to investigate and look into the future of the city's
carbon emissions.
Researchers analyzed four different situations: maintaining the
current GDP growth and energy efficiency; slowing down GDP growth
and cutting energy consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP; or changing
either of these elements.
Even with concerted efforts to improve energy efficiency, the
most optimistic prediction is that emissions might be reduced by 75
percent by 2020 if the city's economic development slows to about
five percent and the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP also
drops five percent, the report said.
But a more realistic scenario is the city will continue its
current robust economic development and the government will cut
energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP by two percent a year.
That would help Shanghai's carbon emissions to settle at less than
300 million tons by 2020.
"This would mean the city should focus on economic development
for the commercial and service sectors and not on the traditional
industrial and agricultural programs to achieve lower carbon
emissions," Li said yesterday.
All About
Carbon emission,
GDP growth
(
Shanghai Daily December 13, 2007)
