Clouds are gathering over prospects for a successful outcome in Cancun as UN climate talks move into the middle weekend.

Japan announced that it will reject a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, sparking doubt over the survival of the legally binding treaty. In response, developing countries accused Japan of breaking its pledge and warned that climate talks in Mexico would fail unless Tokyo backed down.

“If the second commitment period of the Protocol is not there, then I’m afraid the prospects for any positive outcome at Cancun are very remote,” said Jairam Ramesh, environment minister of India.

“At Cancun we need to go beyond goody-goody statements,” Ramesh said. “We need some commitments, including details on how developed nations will share clean technologies with their developing counterparts and what an international agreement to protect forests will look like.”

The mood at the talks Thursday was bleak and pessimistic.

“Countries are painting themselves into a corner, and they are on opposite sides of the room,” said Jake Schmidt, director of International Climate Policy at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington, D.C.

“It is getting harder to find a solution to this that ends up with an outcome here in Cancun,” Schmidt said. “I think an MRV/ICA and finance outcome is within reach, but this whole fate of the KP thing is casting a huge shadow over that prospect.” MRV refers to whether developing countries’ mitigation actions would be subject to “measurable, reportable and verifiable” international monitoring, which ICA stands for “international consultation and analysis.”

Still, several countries have expressed a great willingness to move on. Yemen, speaking for G-77 countries and China, said that parties cannot afford to leave Cancun empty-handed and that any outcome reached must not compromise or prejudge the overall objective of reaching a comprehensive, fair, ambitious and legally binding agreement.

Lesotho, speaking for Least Developed Countries, said that there was need to identify areas where possible decisions could be reached in Cancun and areas for continued negotiations next year. It wanted financing to be scaled up, new and additional and called for the establishment of the new Climate Fund that ensures direct access of funds.

While the countries argue at the table, combating climate change is no longer a matter of choice. Extreme weather events, like crippling mudslides in China, raging forest fires in Russia and devastating storms in Pakistan, serve as reminders of the fact that human survival is already at stake.

This year is almost certain to rank in the top three warmest years since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850, according to data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organization.

Box: Major regional climate events in 2010

Extreme Asian summer monsoon in some regions

Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history as a result of exceptionally heavy monsoon rains. More than 1,500 lives were lost, and more than 20 million people were displaced as large parts of Pakistan’s agricultural land were inundated. In terms of the number of people affected, the United Nations rated the flood as the greatest humanitarian crisis in recent history.

Summer rainfall was also well above normal in western India, and China experienced its most significant monsoon flooding since 1998, with southeastern China and parts of the northeast most severely affected. A number of these floods led to significant loss of life, directly as well as through landslides in China, which claimed more than 1,400 lives in Gansu Province.

Extreme summer heat waves in Russia and other regions

The Northern Hemisphere summer saw exceptional heat waves in several parts of Eurasia. The most extreme heat was centered over western Russia, with the peak extending from early July to mid-August, although temperatures were well above normal from. The heat was accompanied by destructive forest fires, while severe drought, especially in the Volga region, led to widespread crop failures. Neighboring countries were also affected, with extreme high maximum temperatures recorded in Finland, Ukraine and Belarus, and record high numbers of extreme warm nights in parts of southeastern Europe, including Serbia.

Japan and China also had their hottest summers on record. Earlier in the year, there was exceptional pre-monsoon heat in southern Asia, which included a temperature of 53.5 degrees Celsius at Mohenjo Daro on May 26, a national record for Pakistan and the highest temperature in Asia since 1942.

Drought in the Amazon and elsewhere

Parts of the Amazon basin were badly affected by drought during the later part of 2010. An unusually dry July-September period in northwestern Brazil resulted in sharply reduced stream flow in many parts of the Amazon catchment, with the Rio Negro, a major Amazon tributary, falling to its lowest level on record.

In Asia, parts of southwestern China experienced severe drought through late 2009 and early 2010. Yunnan and Guizhou provinces both had their lowest rainfalls on record during the period from September 2009 to mid-March 2010 with totals 30 to 80 percent below normal. The dry conditions were also accompanied by above-normal temperatures and numerous forest fires. Conditions there eased with good rains during the summer.

(Beijing Review?December 3, 2010)