David Concar, counselor for climate change and energy at the UK Embassy.[UK?in China]?

The Copenhagen Climate Conference has been providing the world with continuous drama-filled episodes fit for a soap opera. First the Danish draft was leaked, angering much of the developing world by suggesting that both rich and poor countries be held responsible for carbon emissions. Leader of the developing world, G-77 chair Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping, said there would be no protests in the form of walkouts, as the world "cannot afford failure."

 

Yet in the latest round of events to unfold, the G-77, led by African nations, staged a walkout and suspended the conference for half a day. There are, of course, numerous other sagas of bickering among nations that are happening simultaneously, mainly divided between the haves and the have-nots.

Despite the disagreements, David Concar, counselor for climate change and energy at the UK Embassy in Beijing, maintains a positive view toward the conference. "If you add up the mitigation pledges put for 2020, we are actually not very far away from having enough for a two-degree deal," Concar noted.

The two degrees he is referring to is the scientific number at which temperature increases must be capped in order to avoid catastrophic climate change. With the earth's average temperature only 13 degrees Celsius, capping temperatures to an increase of 2 degrees presents a risky future, at best.

Just last week, the EU set a goal of reducing carbon emissions by 30 percent and pledged US$3.6 billion to help developing countries tackle climate change. Yet many poorer nations—nations that are also receiving the brunt of global warming's side effects—responded that it wasn't enough.

Concar says the UK has put forth a lot of effort to lead the world in reducing carbon emissions, even surpassing its Kyoto Protocol target. "We're not just going to hit our target, we're going to do it more than twice over and I think not enough people understand that," Concar commented.

As for whether Britain's financial support is enough, Concar said it was progress. "It's a step in the right direction. The right direction to go in is putting specific numbers or money on the table, which you're seeing that happen now."

China's leading climate negotiator Su Wei has criticized both the EU and the US for their unremarkable targets, saying that industrialized countries should do more. As China is a leading global polluter, the EU and US are throwing jabs right back. Concar agreed that a deal in Copenhagen should reflect the industrialized world's responsibility, as those nations have accounted for most of the carbon accumulated to date. However, reaching an agreement will require all countries to play a role.

"No one is saying that developing countries will have to take binding, absolute cuts," Concar said, also acknowledging that, "The agreement is going to have to look forward to where the future growth of the carbon burden is coming from," and that it is "a problem for major emerging economies. So a deal needs to look forward as well as back."

Agreeing on a policy that will not keep poor countries from developing is not going to be easy. Yet Concar says more countries should be more interested in reducing emissions, as there are economic gains at the other end of the spectrum. "There are benefits, actually, that transcend climate change. There are many benefits from becoming more energy-efficient, for both businesses and whole economies."

The key, according to Concar, is providing people and companies the incentives to go green. "The problem is that they won't do it unless they are incentivized to do it. So you've got to have an incentive structure that really drives businesses towards energy efficiency."

Concar believes China is a big part of the solution. "Once China enters markets, it can have a beneficial impact of driving costs down for green technologies that can be very significant in the future."

As for countries that say the economic impact of becoming energy-efficient is too big of a burden amidst the global financial crisis, Concar recalls Stern's calculation, which is accepted by many experts and asserts that the world should spend one percent of global GDP to combat climate change.

"What is the probability of your house or flat burning down? Pretty damn small. But you still buy a policy. Some of them are quite expensive—remarkably expensive in some cases—to protect against that. In this case, we are talking about the planet burning down. And we're talking about amounts of money—according to Stern at least—that amount to one percent or so of GDP. Is that really such a large amount to be asking countries to pay?"

The world will have to stay tuned to find out later this week, as many heads of state will arrive in Copenhagen to battle it out.