Much is at stake at the upcoming UN climate change conference in Durban, South Africa, which was described as a race against the clock to salvage the Kyoto Protocol.

TWISTS, TURNS ON THE ROAD

For years, talks on the Kyoto Protocol have been traveling a bumpy road.

After the U.S. quit the protocol, participating countries adopted the Bali Roadmap in 2007 which started a two-year process toward the goal of finalizing a binding agreement at the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009.

Under the roadmap, Kyoto Protocol participants should remain committed to the accord while the U.S. should, together with the developing countries, make efforts to reduce emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

In Copenhagen, although talks on the protocol failed to finish on time, the conference allowed the concerned parties to continue negotiations and reached a new agreement known as the "Copenhagen Accord".

The "Copenhagen Accord" stipulates that the developed countries should provide the developing countries with new, extra funds to support the latter's efforts in adapting to global climate change.

The first step is to provide 30 billion U.S. dollars before 2012, and 100 billion dollars each year between 2012 and 2020.

The Cancun conference in 2010 went even further. The Cancun Accord, reached at the conference, laid the foundation for the largest-ever international cooperative operation on emissions reductions.

Under the UNFCCC framework, all developed countries and some of the developing countries have set emissions reduction targets.

They also set a long-term target of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 degrees centigrade, and established the Green Development Foundation to help developing countries in their environmental protection efforts.

The Cancun conference turned the climate negotiations process around, putting it on a smoother track.

The biggest achievement of the Cancun conference, in the view of UNFCCC executive secretary Christiana Figueres, was that it restored international confidence in climate negotiations.

PROBLEMS REMAIN

From Bali to Cancun, some headway was made in the climate negotiations. However, the talks failed to get to the core issues concerning the developed nations' emissions cut targets in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and their promises to provide capital and technology to support developing countries in tackling climate change.

Over the past four years, there have been twists and turns in solving the two problems.

The U.S. exit from the Kyoto Protocol inevitably undermined the accord. Some developed countries wavered and even backed away from their positions under the excuse of "environmental integrity."

The Umbrella Group, which includes Japan, Canada, Australia, the U.S., and other developed countries, has repeatedly rejected the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

At the 2010 Cancun summit, Japan declared bluntly that it would not agree to any extension of the Kyoto Protocol, drawing criticism from the international community, especially from the developing countries.

The UNFCCC clearly states that developed countries should help the developing ones in terms of capital and technology. However, in the years that followed, the promises remained mere lip service.

It was not until the 2009 Copenhagen conference that rich nations grudgingly agreed to provide 30 billion U.S. dollars in "fast-start" finance to combat climate change between 2010 and 2012, with the bulk of the amount not in place yet.

EXPECTING REAL FAIRNESS

Would there be any progress at the Durban conference in resolving the two thorny issues? Recent remarks by officials from developed countries suggested the outcome might be gloomy.

Todd D. Stern, U.S. special envoy for climate change, said Tuesday that the Kyoto Protocol was not up for discussion for the U.S. at the Durban conference.

Meanwhile, Japanese Environment Minister Hosono Goshi last month reiterated his country's opposition to extending the Kyoto Protocol and proposed a new global framework Tokyo says all "major emitters" should join.

The European Union, which has backed the extension, is making subtle changes to its position. At a meeting of the Environment Council in October, the bloc said it would commit to a new phase of the Kyoto climate change pact, but with conditions.

While prospects for extending the protocol appear uncertain, the Kyoto Protocol itself and the UNFCCC, the international legal framework and multilateral negotiation mechanism to tackle climate change, might all be at risk, too.

Take Japan and the EU for example. Japan is about to raise a "bilateral emission offset" agreement at the upcoming Durban talks, while the EU has already unilaterally levied a carbon emissions tax on all planes landing or taking off within its borders.

Fairness has always been an excuse used by developed countries to shirk their responsibilities. They seem to wait to see all the "major emitters" meet their emissions reduction targets first, before they are willing to take on their own responsibilities.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon earlier this month stressed that the forthcoming Durban talks should implement the consensus reached at the Cancun conference.

"It is an imperative which we have to do in all the circumstances...We cannot ask the poorest and the most vulnerable to bear the cost," Ban said.

Whether the Durban conference could achieve new progress in efforts to solving those problems would depend on the willingness of the developed countries to adopt the true fair principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" and take practical actions with sincerity.