Based on the research conclusion that an outbreak of flu has something to do with climate, and since both flu and SARS are caused by the corona virus, Chinese scientists have suggested that the epidemic of SARS could be seasonal. They have further suggested that Beijing is still a medium-risk region in June but will be not be by July.
Some researchers from the Institute of Policy and Management under the Chinese Academy of Sciences and East China Normal University have taken part in research concerning the subject. According to the research, the outbreak period of SARS is somehow connected with climate.
The climate conditions for the outbreak of the epidemic are as follow: the daily average temperature during the epidemic month was 5 to 22 Celsius; the monthly rainfall no more than 90mm; the daily average temperature in the outbreak period was around 13 to 17 Celsius; the daily temperature range did not vary much throughout the six or eight days before the epidemic outbreak, often accompanied by poor air quality.
According to analysis based on the appraisal of climate risk, the team found general climate patterns for seasonal epidemics such as is being suggested for SARS. In winter, from December to February, the southern area of the 28th parallel of north latitude is a medium to high risk region of the epidemic. Among them, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Hainan is a medium risk belt between December; Sichuan Province being at comparatively high risk.
In spring, from March to May, the medium to high risk epidemic region gradually moves up to the north; the medium to high risk epidemic region is then along the axis of Dali County of southwest China's Yunnan Province to Jinan City of east China's Shandong Province in March; in April, the axis from Tengchong County of Yunnan Province to Changchun City of northeast China's Jilin Province; Beijing enters into a risk region at this time.
The summer, from June to August, is the most optimistic season for China's epidemic situation; in June, the areas along Harbin City of northeast China's Helongjiang Province to Yushu Prefecture of west China's Qinghai Province become the northern border of a safe region; most parts of the country being comparatively safe except for the southern area of Tibet, the neighborhood of Xining and Jiuquan cities of Qinghai Province and beyond Xilinhot and Xinganmeng prefectures in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
In autumn, from September to November, the risky region moves down to the south. The situation in September is comparatively simple: the southern border of the risky region is along Dalian City of northeast China's Liaoning Province; Yan'an and Tianshui counties of west China's Shaanxi Province; Beijing and Tianjin enters into a risk period again.
Based on the above research, the team has suggested the detailed epidemic situation in summer according to conditions of China's floating population.
In June, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shanxi, Liaoning, Ningxia, Shandong, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Tibet are a high risk region. Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Beijing, Jilin, Sichuan is a medium risk region while the rest of the regions remains safe.
In July, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai are high risk regions; Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Jilin are medium risk regions and the rest of the regions are safe.
In August, there is no high risk region. Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Qinghai is a medium risk region and the rest of the areas are safe.
(China.org.cn translated by Wang Qian June 19, 2003)
