The launch of an earthquake-monitoring satellite is a key next step to help predict tremors using space technology, a senior space official said on Thursday.
"We expect to develop a satellite specially to monitor electromagnetic changes on the Earth's surface by the end of 2010 after technological breakthroughs were made regarding its payload," Luo Ge, deputy chief of the China National Space Administration (CNSA), told China Daily in Beijing.
By closely monitoring electromagnetic disturbances in the ground and in the ionosphere the layer of the atmosphere at an altitude of more than 80 kilometers which many scientists believe may herald earthquakes, the experimental satellite is expected to detect precursor signals and make more reliable forecasts, Luo said.
The official, however, stressed that the move represents only one effort to tap the potential to predict imminent earthquakes, adding other measures should be combined with the space technology.
Earthquakes killed at least 1.5 million people over the past century, with one-third of the destructive temblors occurring in China, and claiming 55 percent of the total deaths, according to an official release.
Compared with ground monitoring facilities, satellite sensors cover far larger swathes, and could gather more data faster, Luo said.
Speaking on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake in Hebei Province which killed at least 240,000 people, Luo said his agency had long been seeking to apply space technology to help mitigate losses caused by natural disasters.
Qian Xuesen, a founding father of China's space industry, proposed developing satellites with magnetic and infrared sensors to help predict earthquakes immediately after the Tangshan catastrophe, according to Luo.
"We never gave up the idea, and now, technically and economically, we are ready to start the project," Luo said.
If launched as planned during the next Five-Year Plan period (2011-15), China will join a select club of nations which remotely monitor magnetic changes to warn of earthquakes.
In 2003, the United States launched Quakesat 1, an earth observation nanosatellite for collecting earthquake precursor signals from space. The next year, France blasted off a satellite for "Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions (DEMETER)."
Earlier this year, Russia placed into orbit Compass 2, which is expected to "help take the first step in the practical forecasting of earthquakes from space," according to Russian news reports
"China looks forwards to international cooperation in developing its satellite," Luo said. "We are open to various kinds of collaboration, including supply of equipment, funding and data sharing."
Luo also suggested that global earthquake monitoring satellites form a network to attain better prediction results.
Tom Bleier, CEO of Quakefinder, whose company joined forces with Stanford University and Lockheed Martin Corp to launch Quakesat 1, said yesterday he applauded China's latest effort.
"I would also encourage them to share their data with researchers from the United States, France and Russia and other places," he said in a telephone interview, adding that his company is willing to collaborate with China on earthquake prediction.
Bleier and Friedemann Freund, a scientist at a research center with the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), said the connection between large earthquakes and electromagnetic phenomena in the ground and in the ionosphere is becoming increasingly solid.
They cited the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake near San Francisco, which sent out strong signals of magnetic disturbances a full two weeks before the 7.1-magnitude quake occurred and killed 63 people.
(China Daily July 28, 2006)
