As measures are implemented across China to prevent outbreaks or spread of avian influenza, a meeting of hundreds of international experts opened in Geneva, Switzerland on Monday with warnings that a global human flu pandemic is inevitable.

"It is only a matter of time before an avian flu virus ... acquires the ability to be transmitted from human to human, sparking the outbreak of human pandemic influenza," WHO Director General Lee Jong-wook told the gathering.

Experts fear the virus sweeping through Asia and Europe could mutate into a form easily passed between humans, producing a pandemic that could kill millions and cost the global economy US$800 billion.

People are not easily infected by the virus at present and it is passed on almost exclusively through human contact with birds. But should it spark a human pandemic, the cost to industrialized countries could be huge, the World Bank said.

China has not confirmed any human cases of bird flu but authorities on Sunday could not rule out that three people may have been infected in central China's Hunan Province. One of them, a 12-year-old girl, died last month while her 9-year-old brother and a 36-year-old middle school teacher are reported to have recovered.

A World Bank report said previous studies on flu pandemics had suggested any new outbreak could kill between 100,000 and 200,000 people in the US alone, which it said translated into economic losses for the country of between US$100 billion and US$200 billion.

"If we extrapolate from the US to all high-income countries, there could be a present-value loss of US$550 billion. The loss for the world would, of course, be significantly larger, because of the impact in the developing world," the report said.

Health Minister Gao Qiang yesterday ordered health departments across the country to act quickly in the prevention and control of human infection of bird flu.

Addressing a national televised conference, Gao told them to strengthen work in monitoring, control and treatment, stressing that rapid response is crucial.

All 168 live poultry markets in Beijing were shut yesterday and the municipal government also closed pet-bird markets, banned chicken raising in urban areas, and asked citizens to keep their pigeons in cages.

Residents have been told to vaccinate all animals, including pets, against bird flu and food-and-mouth disease; and those who refuse to do so can be taken into custody or fined.

(China Daily November 8, 2005)