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News Analysis: Koizumi Bets Election Win on DPRK Visit

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is to pay his second visit to Pyongyang Saturday, seeking a satisfactory resolution of impasse relating to the abduction issue and diplomatic normalization process to revitalize his decreasing popularity over issues like unpaid pension premiums.

 

During his historic visit to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Sept. 17, 2002, the premier signed the Pyongyang Declaration in which Japan admitted and apologized for its atrocities during colonial rule in the Korean Peninsular. The document also restarted negotiations on the normalization of diplomatic relations.

 

During the visit, Japan got an unexpected confirmation about 13 missing Japanese who were kidnapped by the DPRK in late 1970s and early 1980s. The DPRK said five of them were still alive and allowed them to visit relatives in Japan the following month.

 

The abducted, however, have since then remained with their family members left in the DPRK. The Japanese government has been demanding for a reunion, while the DPRK accused Japan of breaking promise to send them back.

 

Although the two sides resumed negotiations on relationship in October 2002, the process went with little progress mainly due to the issue and the nuclear development problem.

 

However, atmosphere seemed to turn favorable after the second-round of six-party talks in February. In early April, current and former senior lawmakers of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party met with senior DPRK officials in China. Japan, then, offered US$100,000 of aid shortly after the DPRK was encountered with a big accidental explosion at a railway station on April 22. In early May, diplomats of both sides had a fresh contact in Beijing. During the talks, the Japanese delegates reportedly conveyed Koizumi's attention to pay a second visit.

 

After the announcement of Pyongyang trip, Koizumi said, "I determined that progress is possible toward normalizing Japan-DPRK diplomatic ties," showing his confidence of having the abduction issue settled this time.

 

It is widely believed among the Japanese that Koizumi would bring the eight family members back along with him as the DPRK reportedly demanded during previous contacts.

 

Koizumi may told DPRK leader Kim Jong-il in the meeting that if the abduction issue and DPRK's nuclear development program could be resolved, he intends to realize the relationship normalization before the expiration of his term in 2006, the Yomiuri Shimbun said Wednesday.

 

The trip was timed when the premier is facing criticism over handling of Iraq reconstruction and failure of paying pension premiums.

 

His decision to support the United States -- Japan's strongest ally -- by sending troops to Iraq put the public into fear of terrorist attacks. The abduction of five Japanese in Iraq was the worst hit incurred so far due to the operation.

 

Now, Koizumi has to defuse public dissatisfaction over a sweeping political uproar that a large number of government officials and lawmakers failed to pay national pension premiums while they are urging citizens to fulfill duties.

 

The scandal even stormed Koizumi himself, who was not paying the money for more than six years.

 

A successful visit is quite likely to revamp the disdained personal and party image, which is vital for the upcoming House of Councilors election in July.

 

Following the disclosure of his unpaid dues, the approval rating for the cabinet has dropped to under 50 percent. There is little doubt that bringing the family members home will boost his popularity. The approval rating for his cabinet saw a double-digit zoom after his first Pyongyang visit.

 

(Xinhua News Agency May 21, 2004)

 

Koizumi to Normalize Ties with DPRK in His Term
Koizumi to Visit DPRK
Koizumi Set to Be Re-elected Japanese PM
Japan Premier's Support Rate Seen Slipping
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