As soon as his assuming Prime Minister's post, April 18 saw Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero announce the decision of first importance, ordering the Spanish Minister of National Defence to pull the 1300 officers and soldiers out from Iraq in a safest way and a shortest possible time. Starting from the 19 onwards, Spain began to pull out its troops from Iraq and the evacuation will be finished within 6 weeks.  

At present phenomena of uncertainty, such as seizure of power, assault and kidnapping broke out one following the other and the casualties of the US troops hit the daily record after the war. This for Bush, the American president, constitutes on the one hand a phantasm of handing over the power to the Iraqi authority on Jun 30 while on the other the cruel reality of unable to pull out from the quagmire. At the moment when he was suffering a great headache the withdrawal of the Spanish troops is really a knock on the head. Recalling of the past when he put heads together with Blair the British Prime Minister and the then Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar in Azores Islands, discussion on the situation of the world still lingers vividly in his mind. But now the Spanish brother discussing together on the attack against Iraq wanted to leave, casting him aside. This vexation and wrath of his can not be covered up lightly with a mere word "sorry".

Speaking of the Spanish withdrawal of its troops from Iraq it effected not much impact on the military affairs. Actually among the united armies of 34 countries in Iraq only those of the US and Britain are the really positive armed forces. The other troops can only play the role for keeping peace or once faced with uncontrollable situation they all draw in their horns and are not considered as deployable offensive forces.

However, the crux of the matter is that the Spanish troop is the first of the united armies that have decided to pull out from Iraq and the US is worrying about its domino effect. On April 19 Colin Powel, the US Secretary of State acknowledged openly that there are several countries to follow the heals of Spain's withdrawal due to the "cause of domestic political situation" in their own countries.

Unfortunately, the development of the situation these days is serving testimony to his guess. Closely following the Spain's pullout Honduras is going to be the second dominos. Its president Ricardo Maduro Joes expressed on April 19 that Honduras would try its best to pull its 370 troops out from Iraq in "so short a time as possible". This was followed on the same day by a high-ranking adviser for the Polish government by saying that Poland was ready to evacuate its 2500 soldiers out of Iraq, stating that the decision of Warsaw was made as influenced by the withdrawal of the Spanish troops. Portugal might withdraw its 128 police out from Nasiriya, stated Portuguese minister of internal affairs. The Thai Prime minister continued to say on April 20 that Thailand would withdraw its troops out of Iraq if the situation turns from bad to worse there. Though harried time and again by the US but without budging the ROK came out to say that judging from the situation that Spain pulled out its troops from Iraq it's not an "urgent matter to send troops" to Iraq now. Japan, the reliable ally of the US, though insists on not to pull out its troops from Iraq now, expressed that the Spain's withdrawal was not out of expectation and "understandable".

Honduras is the most intimate friend of the US in the middle of America while Poland is the "new European country" on which the US put its great hope whereas Japan and the ROK are the important allies of the US in Asian region. The change of notes of these countries has not only made the US and Britain feel more isolated in Iraq but also landed them in an extremely passive position in international affairs.

What is more serious is that the "new leader" Sadar who have recently become quite prestigious among the Iraqi people has given the order to stop attacking the Spanish troops in answer to its withdrawal decision. This has beyond doubt strengthened the domino effect.

However, this doesn't mean that the US has no room to maneuver. Japan and Italy are after all persevering in stationing their troops there in Iraq. The escalation of the chaotic situation in Iraq now has something to do with the factional forces grabbing for power with the newly established authority. The Iraqi armed forces in resistance are taking the "withdrawal of foreign armed forces" as a means of bargain with the US. This can be regarded the same as the recent hostage event. Now the US is fighting against these armed forces while keeping on talks with them and it still has more political room to maneuver now. Nevertheless, whether the US is able to curb the domino effect of the withdrawal of its allied forces out from Iraq depends on whether it can control the situation in Iraq by way of talks, thus re-vitalizing the sense of security among the allied forces. This depends on whether the US has enough political wisdom or not.

(People's Daily April 22, 2004)