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On Dec.11 and 12, 2003, Japan-ASEAN summit was held in Tokyo. From Dec.15 through 16, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov paid a visit to Japan to discuss matters concerning the construction of the oil pipeline in the Far East.
Analysts think that these two diplomatic activities carry a very strong geopolitical sense, which means to counterbalance China's ever-increasing political and economic influence by giving prominence to Japan's presence in East Asia.
From another angle, objectively China and Japan have again been pushed to the foreground. The two countries, like it or not, must make choice between handshaking and wrestling.
Concerning the Japan-ASEAN summit, some Chinese scholars say that the meeting marks the formation, in East Asia, of a frame for the trilateral (ASEAN-China-Japan) relations. The economic integration of East Asia will serve as a platform for Sino-Japan contact and cooperation, whereby the two countries can circumvent their grievances and launch cooperation in a new realm.
Another view holds that the economic cooperation and integration of East Asia would not be possible if China and Japan, two ends of the new triangle, contend for leadership. That is to say, the future Sino-Japan relation in this new triangle will be in two conditions and will decide the outcome of the East Asian integration process. It can thus be seen that the crux of the matter is whether the China-Japan-ASEAN pattern will become a turning point in Sino-Japan relations.
There is much rancor between China and Japan. An atmosphere of distrust from the ordinary people to the government has been prevailing over Sino-Japanese ties. Caution and vigilance against each other has influenced various aspects of the bilateral relations. What are the reasons?
One reason is the lack of opportunity for the two countries to iron out difference and enhance trust, second is the strategy of containment adopted by the United States in recent years against China, which is reflected in the Japan-US alliance.
Issues such as Japan's advance toward militaritation, the missile defense system and the Taiwan question have aggravated doubts between China and Japan. In other words, no backdrop has been formed for China and Japan to dispel their mutual distrust and do away with grievances. Therefore, the prerequisite for China and Japan to get out of the predicament in their relationship is to build mutual trust. As everybody knows, it is not easy to build confidence. It is even harder to change from distrust to trust. It needs time, patience and tolerance.
State-to-state relations are based on mutual benefit, but only national interests are eternal. However, the practice of a country's foreign relations and even commercial exchange has proved that interest relations and business competition without the prerequisite of mutual trust are too weak to weather any storm or setback. This is especially true of Sino-Japan relations. Why?
This is because it is easier for the two countries to know and understand the other party than any other one, which is the foundation of trust. Here lies the profound meaning of the phrase "close neighbors separated only by a strip of water". But on the other hand, the interlinking of the cultural, geographical and national characters may facilitate mutual understanding and trust, it may also be a factor for the formation of prejudice and obstinacy. (There are people at home who sum up this as a trial of strengths in the will power and diplomatic capability of the state).
Although China and Japan are currently still in a state of distrust, cooperation is the best choice for the two countries and is the trend that has appeared against the background. This refers to the economic integration of East Asia, as well as cooperation in energy resources in Northeast Asia.
Japan is the biggest investor in East Asia, while China is the largest market in the same region. If the two sides do not conduct sincere cooperation, capital will not be effectively allocated and the market will not be rationally divided. Although the experience of the EU integration can be drawn on, by which East Asia can make less detour, the integration of East Asia would be nothing but a shell if China and Japan fail to join hands.
With regard to cooperation in energy in Northeast Asia, the contention between the "Angarsk-Daqing" and the "Angarsk-Nakhodka" oil pipelines reflects Japan's distrust in China, as evidenced by its worry that China would use the "Angarsk-Daqing" pipeline to impair Japan's interests.
Since China and Japan are two big oil consumers capable of influencing the oil price in the international market, if they race to seize business opportunities in a truculent way and by excluding the other party, just think except changes in oil distribution, can there be any help in lowering the oil price?
It is thus clear that if both countries can find a way of cooperation in joint exploitation and utilization of Far Eastern energy resources together with Russia, it will not only avoid business losses caused by competition, more importantly, it will also help reduce the sense of distrust between China and Japan.
(People’s Daily January 16, 2004)
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