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The United States will not punish key ally Pakistan for refusing to back a planned war against Iraq, because Washington knows that supporting the war could undermine Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and endanger the war on terrorism, Pakistani analysts say.
"The Americans need Pakistan as much as Pakistan needs the US," said Khalid Mahmud, an analyst at the state-funded Institute for Regional Studies. "They cannot afford to retaliate against Pakistan for abstaining."
Pakistan, with a 95 percent Muslim population, has said it would not support military action on Iraq.
The cabinet decided last Monday, according to ruling party officials, to abstain when it looked like a vote on war was imminent in the United Nations Security Council, where Pakistan has a non-permanent seat.
Pakistan is a pivotal player in the US-led campaign to wipe out the al-Qaida terror network and hunt down its supremo Osama bin Laden.
Islamabad's cooperation has enabled it to continue to reap a host of rewards right up until Friday, when Washington announced the lifting of the last remaining military sanctions imposed after General Musharraf's coup in October 1999.
After the September 11, 2001 terror attacks, Washington lifted nuclear-related sanctions on military sales and training, pumped in more than US$1 billion in aid, paid US$600 million for the use of Pakistani air bases and corridors, rescheduled US$3 billion worth of debt and promised to write off a further US$1 billion.
Now Pakistani officials fear they will have to pay a price for saying no to US requests to support their push for war.
"There could be negative repercussions from the outside," a senior foreign affairs adviser to the government said, on condition of anonymity.
But analysts were confident Pakistan's importance to the United States, bolstered by the capture on March 1 of al-Qaida kingpin Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the network's alleged operations chief, would give it immunity from penalties.
"We should keep something in mind, this is not a one-way affair. The Americans value Pakistan's assistance and cooperation," Mahmud said. "And the capture of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed has given Pakistan a better bargaining position on Iraq."
On Saturday Pakistan announced the capture of another senior al-Qaida operative, Moroccan national Yassir al-Jazeeri, bringing the number of foreign al-Qaida operatives captured there close to 450.
Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali, after appealing for more time for Iraq to disarm, on Thursday drew a line between the war on terrorism and the planned invasion of Iraq.
"The war on terrorism and the war against Iraq are two different things," he said.
"Pakistan can now say: 'This is what we have done on one front, therefore we must have the facility take a different position on Iraq,'" Mahmud said.
Anxiety that Washington may raise the heat on Islamabad over infiltration by Islamic rebels into Indian-controlled Kashmir was misplaced as the pressure is already there, he said.
"The American emphasis all along has been to take the Indian side and to tell Pakistan to stop infiltration along the Line of Control," Mahmud said.
Military analyst Talat Masood, a retired general, said there would have been "far greater consequences" if Pakistan's support was critical to US plans, Masood said.
"It could slow its support to Pakistan, start ignoring it, and it could give a signal to multilateral agencies to not be helpful," he said referring to programs like the International Monetary Fund's three-year US$1.3 billion loan program.
But Masood doubted that the United States would revert to imposing sanctions as it did over Pakistan's 1998 nuclear test.
"Because it does not want Pakistan to be destabilized, it does not want to do anything that would encourage the actions of extremists," he said. "The US still needs Pakistan for a long time to come in the fight against terrorism."
Musharraf is already under sustained attack from Islamist groups for his cooperation with the United States, and from the parliamentary opposition over the role he has given the military in politics.
(China Daily March 18, 2003)
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