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Osama bin Laden's dramatic intervention in the Iraqi crisis is an attempt to harness the wave of hostility that he hopes a US war on Iraq will unleash throughout the Arab and Muslim world, analysts say.
By stressing his solidarity with the Iraqi people, rather than with the "apostate regime" of President Saddam Hussein, bin Laden hopes to attract the support of both moderate and radical Muslims for his Islamist agenda, they added.
"It was obvious bin Laden would try and capitalize on the biggest conflict the Middle East is facing for a decade," said British-based terrorism expert Magnus Ranstorp.
"It is a significant statement, but very predictable. He's been riding on the back of issues that will naturally rally radical and moderate Muslims."
An Arab official added: "He is trying to take advantage of the crisis in an opportunistic way. He is promoting himself as the genius of his time. He is self-congratulatory."
Bin Laden -- blamed for the worst attack on US soil since Pearl Harbor -- chose on Tuesday to remind the world that he is alive as the drums of war beat louder, exhorting Muslims to fight "the allies of the devil."
His message to the Islamic world was essentially that the United States -- the new "crusader" -- was poised to attack the former Muslim capital Baghdad, a reference to the city which was under the Abbasid Caliphate a millennium ago.
Many observers of bin Laden had predicted he would wait until the Iraq crisis was ripe before trying to rally Muslims worldwide in the war against the United States.
"War against Iraq is a big event for bin Laden. It is important for him to have a say in this crisis," said Jamal Khashoggi, an editor at Saudi Arabia's Arab News daily.
But bin Laden's message, broadcast by the Qatar-based Al-Jazeera television network on the Eid al-Adha Muslim festival, made clear that his backing did not extend to leaders of Baghdad.
Most analysts saw his message -- in which he gave military advice to Iraqis on how to defeat the United States through suicide attacks, street battles and by hiding in bunkers -- as a "boastful" reminder to Washington he had survived everything it had thrown at him in Afghanistan.
The United States, eager to bolster support for a possible war against Saddam, said the tape was probably genuine and evidence that Iraq and the al-Qaida network were in partnership.
Bin Laden's reappearance sparked concern it may be followed by a major attack. A statement in October was followed by bomb attacks in the Indonesian tourist resort of Bali.
Statements from bin Laden have often been issued shortly before or after strikes blamed on his al-Qaida network.
The United States raised its national threat alert level last week to orange -- the second highest -- citing intelligence reports of a threat from groups linked to al-Qaida.
In Washington, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the tape corroborated US charges that al-Qaida and the Iraqis were in contact and cooperating.
Many analysts said bin Laden's statement, which made a clear distinction between Saddam and his people, knocked down US allegations that there were links between Iraq and al-Qaida.
And Saddam, whose government is at odds with bin Laden's brand of militant Islam, has denied links to al-Qaida.
(China Daily February 14, 2003)
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