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A year-end review shows that the Palestine-Israel violent conflicts continue to become increasingly fierce, the Middle-East peace process has never stepped on to the right track, it is estimated that the "hot spot", the Middle East, that has continued for the longest time in the world, will continue its "heat" in the new year.
Mediation Yields Little Result
In the past year, the international community has made sustained mediation in the Palestine-Israel conflicts, put forward peace framework proposals or formulas, and all large countries have even sent out special envoys on the Middle East issue to visit the region, this fact shows the determination of the international community to jointly propel the Middle East peace process, of which, the US regional strategic adjustment was especially attractive.
The US role and influence in the Middle East peace process are incomparable, but previously it had an exclusive monopoly of this matter and for quite a long period of time it even excluded the involvement of the European Union (EU); it has cooperative partners and friends in the Arab world, but at the same time, it has made many enemies, therefore it has got the bad name of "being partial to Israel". It seems some strategic change emerged in the stance of the Bush administration in handling the Palestine-Israel issue in the second half of this year, planning to present a new program for Middle East peace. This new program promises that Palestine will be finally granted the status of being an independent state possessing all sovereign rights, it requires Israel to withdraw from the occupied Arab territories and guarantee that Palestine possesses the right to subsistence and security. These are to be achieved in three steps, including the reconstruction of Palestine security troops, the pull-out of Israeli troops and the suspension of the construction of settlements, the founding of a provisional Palestine state at the end of 2003, and a thorough solution to the Palestine-Israel issue at the end of 2005. Beginning from September, US Congress, together with the United Nations, Russia and EU, canvassed and absorbed their opinions in the process of formulating the plan which then came out in a "quartet" form, therefore, the new program appears fairly just at least superficially. But because the United States was busy preparing "toppling Saddam Hussein", the quadripartite conference of the UN, EU, Russia and the United States held in Washington on December 20, failed to produce a "route chart" plan.
The struggle waged by Arab countries against Israeli occupation has gone on for over half a century, due to profound accumulated grievances between both sides, it is by no means plain sailing to obviate hatred and solve a series of thorny problems, such being the case, whether there can be a breakthrough in the mediation of the international community will depend largely on the US real intention, attitude and arrangement of time on this issue.
Israel Labels Palestine as "Terrorism"
Israel's biggest change this year is, against the general background of the worldwide fight against terrorism, that it attacked Palestine violence action-all regarded as "terrorist activities". After Ariel Sharon's visit to Washington in the mid-year and obtained an "imperial sword" from the United States by which "Israel has the right to self-defense", Israel's attack and pressure on Palestine can be termed as resolute and relentless. This has intensified the violence conflicts between the two sides, Israel's economy has suffered heavy losses, and Sharon's coalition government has existed for only 20 months. This constitutes one of the main reasons for the difficult advancement of the Middle East peace process.
Israel will hold general election at the end of January next year. A recent poll shows that the Likud clique is almost sure to win, the next government will possibly still be a right-wing regime led by Ariel Sharon, the opportunity for Amram Mitzna's Labor Party to win is slim. This indicates that the over two-year-long violence conflicts have inflicted unprecedented attack on and weakened Israel's domestic peace forces, the basis for mutual trust between Palestine and Israel has been basically destroyed in Israel.
The international community does not believe that Sharon is a figure capable of reaching a historic resolution with Palestine. Sharon pursues an intransigent policy toward Palestine, refuses to have dealings with Arafat, but he does not drive the latter away. He professes that negotiation will not be resumed until Palestine stops all violence actions including actions in the Jew settlements. Nevertheless, Sharon admits that Palestine has been a de facto state. This policy determines that as long as this "ironhanded man" remains to be the Israeli Prime Minister, he will continue to pursue a "violence for violence" policy.
Positive Results for the Arab League Summit
The fact about Israeli invasion and occupation of Arab territory determines that the final solution of the Arab-Israel issue is inseparable from the principle of "land for peace", given this, the parties concerned have the responsibilities and obligations to continue their efforts and adjust their stands.
Arab countries' attitude toward Israel is undergoing change and the existence of Israel is being accepted gradually. The most striking example was the Arab countries' unanimous acceptance of the framework proposal put forward by Saudi Prince Abdullah at the Arab League Summit held in Beirut late last March and turning it into the Arabic framework proposal. The historic breakthrough made at the summit meeting was Arab countries' first acceptance of the opinion concerning the Arab-Israel actual line of control existing before the 1967 war as the final boundary line between both sides.
Arafat is now in a fairly difficult position at home and abroad: it is not only impossible for a thorough reform by Palestine self-government to satisfy the United States, but also the said government's "one hundred-day reform" simply cannot be carried out either due to violence conflicts; Arafat is regarded as the "chieftain of terrorism", and looked upon as "outgoing" by the United States and Israel; he is unable to exercise complete control over Palestine's domestic situation. Palestine has declared that the general election scheduled for early next year will be postponed due to Israel's occupation.
Radical Organizations Vow Resistance
The Arab countries have consistently disagreed confusing in a simplified way the international struggle against terrorism with the Palestinian fight against occupation. The hold that Palestinian radicals' extreme actions were taken out of resistance to Israel's military occupation and suppression, if the anti-occupation attacks aimed at ordinary Israeli people are regarded as terrorist actions, then Israeli military strikes which inflicted more losses upon the lives and property of Palestinian civilians should be national terrorism.
However, the international community hopes that the various conflicting parties stop violence activities of all forms, so the suicidal explosions by Palestinian radical organizations are subjected to condemnation by international opinions. Making use of the diplomatic pressures of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, Palestine persuaded Hamas and others to stop attacks within the territory of Israel; thanks to Egypt's efforts, Arafat-led Fateh held secrete dialogs with Hamas in Cairo, but to no avail.
Almost all Palestinian radical organizations including Hamas and Jihad currently vow to continue to launch struggles against Israeli occupation. They basically disobey Arafat's command, their actual forces have steadily strengthened in the course of the violence conflicts between Palestine and Israel over the past two years. They maintain that Mitzna, Ehud Barak, Shimon Peres and Ariel Sharon essentially have no differences, they even threatened they would recover from Israelis' hands the land lost in 1948. Like the ultra-right forces in Israel, who disagree on the founding of a Palestine state, they oppose the existence of two neighboring countries, the Palestine state and the state of Israel, in the Middle East region.
(People's Daily December 30, 2002)
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