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The second war in Chechnya, which started three years ago and halted with a decisive victory by Russian troops, is still a problem for Russia as the remains of the Chechen rebels continue their raids, causing serious casualties in the Russian military.
Tensions over the prolonged war soared again when the Russian leadership, irritated by constant attacks by the "terrorist" remnants, recently accused Georgia of harboring Chechen terroristsin its Pankisi Gorge. The leadership even threatened to unleash a possible over-border military strike there.
In fact, Russia's stance on the issue of Chechnya has always been clear and steadfast. From the very beginning, Russia firmly stuck to its policy of maintaining its territorial integrity and fighting national separatism, and stipulated the unconditional surrender of the Chechen rebels as the only way for possible peacetalks.
After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States, the Russian leadership, taking advantage of the international anti-terrorism campaign, stepped up military operations in cracking down on Chechen rebels. According to Russian official statistics, at least 14,000 rebel militants had been killed in the past three years at a cost of the lives of 4,000 Russian troops.
With this heavy toll, Chechen rebels have lost the strength to launch another large-scale military operation. Instead, the remaining rebels, using the tactics of sneak attacks and the sowing of land mines, have switched to small groups in the continued fight against Russian troops. A main target for them areRussian military transport helicopters.
So far, they have shot down 13 helicopters. On August 19, 2002,a MI-26 military transport helicopter with 147 people on board wasshot down near the Chechen capital of Grozny by Chechen rebels with a portable surface-to-air missile, killing 121 people.
The catastrophe, described as "the second Kursk tragedy" by Russian President Vladimir Putin, dealt a heavy blow to Russian troops and propelled the country's decision to root out the rebels.
Russia insists that the attacks were launched by Chechen remnants, whose base lies in the Pankisi Gorge of neighboring Georgia.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said the main threat to Russia comes form Georgia, and President Putin warned onSept. 11 that Russia might exercise its self-defense right if Georgia failed to prevent cross-border attacks on Russian territory.
Analysts say the main goal of Putin's words is to increase pressure on the Georgian leadership in a bid to force the country to cooperate with Russia in eradicating terrorists in the gorge. If Georgia is reluctant to meet Russian demands, the Russian side will be likely to resort to unilateral military operations.
Some analysts do not rule out that a "Georgia for Iraq" agreement might be reached between Russia and the United States, which needs Russia's understanding in its war against Iraq.
So far, the war in Chechnya is still Russia's No. One problem. Despite this, some Russian politicians even began to doubt the correctness of the government's military route in settling the Chechen issue. Russian former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov called on the Kremlin to review the tactics and proposed concrete suggestions to reopen negotiations with Chechen rebels.
At the end of last June, former speaker of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) and former secretary of Russian Security Council, Ivan Rybkin, sent Putin an open letter, urging the Kremlin to start a peace process with the rebels. Putin has not commented on the suggestions so far.
Analysts in Moscow believe that the Chechen separatists will never achieve their bid for Chechen independence, regardless of how the Chechen issue is settled.
(Xinhua News Agency September 19, 2002)
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