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Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi risks a political backlash and damage to his public support if he fails to achieve any breakthroughs in his historic meeting later this month with Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong-il.
But some analysts believe he would never have decided to travel to the state unless there were assurances of at least some progress on a raft of thorny issues.
Koizumi, whose standing with the public has fallen in recent months, has told colleagues he would stake his political life on his trip to Pyongyang on September 17 -- another sign some interpret as meaning progress is possible.
DPRK and Japan have no diplomatic ties, and relations between the two Asian neighbors have been rocky for years, overshadowed by suspicion and a bitter history.
Koizumi's trip is the first ever by a Japanese prime minister to DPRK, just a couple of hours flying time from Tokyo but a world away in terms of relations.
Analysts said Koizumi faces intense pressure to pave the way for a long-awaited solution to the issue of 11 Japanese nationals Tokyo believes were kidnapped by DPRK in the 1970s and 1980s. The risk to Koizumi's popularity if he fails is more than a vanity issue. Public support is critical if he is to make headway in his long-promised reforms of the economy and government.
"If he returns home empty-handed, his public support will plunge and he will be ridiculed," said Masao Okonogi, a Korea expert at Keio University in Tokyo.
Analyst Minoru Morita agreed Koizumi was taking a big gamble.
"The Koizumi government, which does not have a solid power base, can survive only if it has popular support," Morita said.
Some politicians within Koizumi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party expressed concern that a possible fiasco over the abduction issue could affect Koizumi's political career.
"If Prime Minister Koizumi fails to bring 11 Japanese back to Japan, he will be laughed at. That will spell doom for the Koizumi government," said lawmaker Katsuei Hirasawa.
Success on the issue, on the other hand, could mean another three-year term for the prime minister after next September, said Shigenori Okazaki, a political analyst at UBS Warburg and a Koizumi critic.
Aware of the risks, Koizumi and his aides are likely to have received some sort of promises of action on the emotionally touchy matter of the alleged abductions, some analysts said.
"It is natural for us to think that General Secretary Kim Jong-il has made a certain decision on the abduction issue," said Yasuhiko Yoshida, who teaches international politics at Osaka University of Economics and Law.
Kim, keen to improve ties with Tokyo, would not ruin what he saw was the first, and possibly last, chance to mend ties with Tokyo, said Akihiko Tanaka, a professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo.
DPRK denies having abducted anyone, but has agreed to launch an investigation into what it calls "missing" Japanese.
Talks on establishing ties have been stalled for two years over a host of difficult issues, including Pyongyang's demand for an apology for Japan's 1910--45 colonization of Korea.
Analysts believe DPRK wants to improve relations with the West to secure desperately needed aid and avoid becoming a target of the US-led war on terror.
Okonogi said risks would be higher for DPRK if the Pyongyang talks ended in rupture with no visible progress.
Then Japan will join forces with the United States to contain DPRK. So, DPRK will be exposed to higher risks, said Okonogi.
DPRK has repeatedly demanded that Tokyo apologize and pay reparations for its harsh colonial rule of Korea.
Japan has so far refused DPRK demands for compensation, saying Japan and Korea were not in a state of war.
When Japan and the Republic of Korea normalized relations in 1965, Tokyo agreed to give Seoul US$500 million -- US$300 million as a grant and the rest in loans.
(China Daily September 4, 2002)
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