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Recently we've seen many leaders of Arab countries express one after another their opposition or non-support to the US possible attack on Iraq. Let's quote the address by Mubarak, Egyptian President to the university students at Alexandria on Aug 27: no country in the Arab world including Kuwait ever attacked by Iraq agreed to set armed attack on Iraq.
People may still have a fresh memory of the war between Iran and Iraq some eight years ago, in which the Arab countries were on the side of Iran in opposition to the "brotherly Iraq". And during the Gulf War afterwards many Arab countries were for the allied army of the US. But why the war possible to be launched by the US against Iraq this time cannot win the support of the Arab World?
There are roughly the two reasons according to the analysis of the reporter.
Taking their own interests into consideration, the countries in Western Asia and Northern Africa must consider first and foremost how to put an end to the turbulent situation in the area as soon as possible, so as to maintain stability and further to protect the peace in the Middle East.
In the eyes of the Arab countries, the most unstable factor at present in the Middle East, and also the problem most urgently to be solved, is the issue between Palestine and Israel and the violent clashes between the two. They aired the view that there shouldn't be two wars at the same time in the Middle East and expressed their wishes for settling the Palestinian and Israeli issue first as early as Dick Cheney, the US vice president paid a visit to the Middle East for their opinion. Because the Arab world thought they've suffered the greatest losses in the struggle between the Arabian and Jewish peoples in the last half a century. It has a lot to do with the interest of most of the Arab countries and so the solution of the Arabian and Israeli and Palestinian and Israeli issues should be put in the first place to handle while Iraq Saddam is after all a problem in the Arab world only. And moreover, the so-called "its threat to the world" is still far from being a reality.
The Arab countries are of the opinion that the Israel lying by their side with the stronger military and economic powers constitutes the greatest threat to the Middle East. And so they are not for the conclusion as President George W. Bush held that the Saddam regime would bring disaster to the peace of the area and to the world. In other words, they held that the threat came from Israel instead of from Iraq because Iraq is no match for Israel either in military or economic field. Therefore, Washington can hardly get an extensive support from the Arab world in its military attack against Iraq before the Palestinian and Israeli clash is brought to an end.
The Arab world advocate that Iraq will go with the UN, agreeing that its personnel will return to Iraq resuming their work for weaponry checkup in order to avoid the outbreak of a war in the Middle East. President Mubarak held that when the Palestine and Israel issue was still in suspension it was very hard for the US to launch a military attack on Iraq. Because, it would be hard for it to persuade the Arabians and on the other hand it would probably cause a "confused and disordered situation". And according to the analysts the explosion of a war against Iraq would probably entail a very serious result, the disruption of Iraq, or even plausible to form a Kurdistan state. In this case, the Iraqi neighbors, such as Turkey and Iran would possibly take some measures to interfere, therefore causing antagonism and new clashes between the Arabian and Non-Arabian nations. As to the other Arabian countries such as Saudi Arabia, they are worrying about the occurrence of similar troubles should the change of Baghdad authority take place, causing political instability in the area. This is what they are not willing to see it happen.
Besides, the Arab world's opposition or non-support to the US attack on Iraq show that they are doubting about the motives of Washington to drive Saddam off stage, or in other words that they are suspicious the real purpose of President Bush's military attack on Iraq.
According to what the Washington says, if weapons of massive killing fall into the hands of international terrorists that will be very dangerous and so a weaponry checkup must be exercised or otherwise to launch a war to overthrow the Saddam Regime.
Public opinions hold that it is totally impossible for Iraq curbed politically, economically and militarily for over 10 years to constitute a threat to the world, and in particular to the United States. Countries in the world owning nuclear weapons are not only the one and numerous are the countries having biochemical weapons in the world. Iraq may not or may have massive killing weapons. Even if it has it probably won't dare to use it first. And so many people believe that the weaponry checkup is but a high-sounding phrase for the US should have "something hard to speak up".
International opinions have a lot of guesses about it: one being that why the US wants a war against Iraq is for the rich oil reserve in the Middle East for it is something indispensable for the US social and economic development and for its global strategy.
Another point of view is that the real purpose of the US attack on Iraq is aimed at Iran for Iran is not only a populous country but also a country with rich oil resources. Besides, it controls the throat of the gulf area and poses a vanguard in opposition to the US. In this sense, Iran has long been a mortal malady to the US. As learned there is a saying in the United States that the religious doctrine of Islamism is the hotbed for international terrorism. The US probably would really like to dominate alone the world today.
Nevertheless, the world opinions are after all the analyses and guesses of the outsiders. They seem to be reasonably logical but it's very hard to say whether they are up to President Bush's initial intention. However, these analyses and guesses cannot but exert some influence on the Arab countries and rouse their great concern and suspicion about the real motives of the US attack on Iraq.
( People's Daily September 4, 2002)
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