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Informal talks on the future of Kashmir mark a small opening in an otherwise uninterrupted cycle of violence but are unlikely to achieve any major breakthrough, analysts said on Friday.
A group of Indian academics and journalists met Kashmir's main separatist alliance on Saturday and agreed to meet again in the hope of promoting a negotiated settlement in the troubled Himalayan region.
The Kashmir Committee, headed by former federal law minister Ram Jethmalani, was set up last month to work for peace in the region at the heart of a military stand-off between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan.
The group met at the heavily guarded headquarters of the All-Party Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference, which brings together 23 political, religious and social groups.
Hurriyat Chairman Abdul Gani Bhat told reporters after the meeting: "In a first meeting, no miracles could happen and miracles did not happen. We have decided to move on."
A joint statement said the next round of talks would take place in New Delhi but did not say when.
The initiative comes three months after heightened tensions between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan - who both claim Kashmir - led to the deployment of a million soldiers along their shared border.
In July, US Secretary of State Colin Powell and British Foreign Minister Jack Straw, during visits to South Asia, insisted on a need for improvement regarding human rights in Indian-ruled Kashmir.
The Hurriyat is also under enormous international pressure to engage in a political process to end the bloodshed.
Political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan said: "The government needs to show political progress and the Hurriyat needs to show that they are exploring the political space."
The Indian Government announced earlier this month that state elections would be held in Kashmir in four phases, beginning on September 16. At the same time, it gave its blessing to Jethmalani to start a dialogue with Muslim separatists.
The Hurriyat has said it will not take part in the elections, but it has accepted the offer of talks.
Ajai Sahni, director of the Institute of Conflict Management, said both sides now had reasons to show they were willing to talk.
"The government wants to try to demonstrate to the world that every effort has been made to secure maximum political participation in the election, while the Hurriyat realizes terrorism is no longer acceptable after September 11 and is thinking about a strategy to get into a political process," he said.
More than 36,500 people have died in Indian-ruled Kashmir since the launch of an insurgency against Indian rule in 1989.
India accuses Pakistan of arming and funding the rebellion, a charge that Islamabad denies.
Analysts do not put too much hope on the discussions succeeding, stressing that many others have failed since a ceasefire between the government and militants broke down two years ago. But they say it is a "step forward" that could break the cycle of uninterrupted violence.
Jethmalani wants to persuade the separatists to take part in the elections, which they have refused to do because they feel that this would legitimize Indian rule in the state.
The Hurriyat only wants to discuss the future of Kashmir and wants Pakistan to be involved at some point, something India absolutely refuses to consider.
Rangarajan said: "In the past, the negotiations failed because the Hurriyat wanted Pakistan to be involved. That is not acceptable to the government of India. But a narrow window is open. In the government, there is a mood for political dialogue. And, for the separatists, it is significant that they want to talk."
There are two other significant factors, according to Kanti Bajpai, professor of international politics at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.
The Hurriyat has not explicitly called for a boycott of the election, which it did at the last polls in 1996 and, for the "first time, they have publicly said they will negotiate with someone who has a connection with the government."
On his side, Jethmalani has said separatist leaders imprisoned by the Indian Government should be released.
"Nobody has a motive to change (their position)," according to Sahni of the Institute of Conflict Management.
But, he added, neither side has "anything to lose" in the discussions.
(Xinhua News Agency August 19, 2002)
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