Power-sharing talks between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto have stalled but political compulsions are likely to push both back to the table, analysts said.
Musharraf and self-exiled two-time prime minister Bhutto have been sounding each other out for years but with Musharraf's terms as both president and army chief due to end soon, they have intensified efforts to reach an agreement.
But Bhutto said in London on Saturday the talks had stalled and she planned to return to Pakistan soon even without a deal. She will announce details of her return on September 14.
Any agreement would likely see Musharraf stepping down as army chief before he stands for another term between mid-September and mid-October, while clearing the way for Bhutto, who still faces graft charges, to return to politics and take part in general elections due at the end of the year.
The two are natural allies, both opposed to Islamist militancy and in favor of free-market reforms.
The West would like to see cooperation between moderates in the nuclear-armed country on the front line of the fight against Al-Qaida and vital to tackling the Taliban in Afghanistan.
But with Musharraf's popularity plummeting, legal challenges to his rule mounting and former exiled prime ministers Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif preparing to return home, Pakistan is facing the risk of turmoil.
While some analysts said the mistrust between Musharraf and Bhutto was too deep for them ever to reach a broad pact, others said they needed each other.
"Both will try to the last, I do not think it's over," political commentator Nasim Zehra said yesterday.
"It's a political compulsion for both of them given their objectives - for one to stay in power and for the other to come back very actively in the political sphere."
Bhutto's decision to only announce her return plans on September 14 had given that much more time for talks. Information Minister Mohammad Ali Durrani said yesterday negotiations would continue.
"The success of the talks depends on their wish-list," he said, referring to Bhutto's demands.
Musharraf needs the support of a popular leader such as Bhutto to bolster his standing before he seeks re-election, especially with their old rival, exiled former prime minister Sharif vowing to return on September 10 and challenge Musharraf.
Constitutionally, Musharraf is bound to stand down as the chief of the army, his main power-base, by the end of the year.
He will then need Bhutto's support for a constitutional amendment waiving a clause that bars state servants from running for office for two years from the time of their resignations.
Bhutto has insisted Musharraf step down as army chief. She also wants immunity from prosecution for herself and others who served in the late 1980s and 1990s. She is also demanding the lifting of a ban on a prime minister serving a third term, and that the president be stripped of the power to dismiss governments.
But many members of Musharraf's ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) are alarmed at the prospect of their old rival returning to take power from them.
The party is rejecting Bhutto's demands that prime ministers be allowed a third term and that presidents give up the power to dismiss governments.
If Musharraf gives too much away to Bhutto, he risks splitting the PML, his main base of support.
(China Daily via agencies September 3, 2007)
