|
The world has seen its trends of development and cooperation gain new headway in 2005, which, on the whole, ends in peace and stability marked by increasing interdependence and intensified competition among states.
However, the world is not tranquil because power politics raise concerns and conflicts, and security threats keep looming. Earth's economy also remains at risk though it has stepped into a new phase of recovery and growth.
Big powers go pragmatic but keep rivaling
Incited by immediate needs or strategic interests, rival big powers have more or less adopted a pragmatic approach when dealing with each other in past months, which, being conducive to maintaining stability in the world, injected new dynamics into the trend of multipolarization.
The United States and Russia had their presidents, George Bush and Vladimir Putin, sit for talks on several occasions to cooperate better in the anti-terror fight, non-proliferation, arms control, energy and trade.
Clouds over the Atlantic opened up as Bush kicked off his second term with a European tour to mend fissures caused mainly by disputes over the Iraq war. In response, the European Union accepted a bigger share in the reconstruction of post-war Iraq.
On the Euro-Asian continent, Putin frequented Brussels for talks over cooperation in bilateral and international affairs. The two sides became so close that, during a summit in May, they pledged to work toward a common place in four key areas: economy, justice, security and culture.
China also registered new progresses in cooperation with other big powers. And, during their summit in London in August, the Group of Eight (G8) heavyweight nations further strengthened their coordination in tackling global problems.
As always, interest conflicts pitted big powers against one another this year, if not more sharply in certain cases.
Washington and Moscow witnessed the distance enlarge between their different logics on issues from democracy and human rights to the anti-terror fight and nuclear power in Iran.
What's more, the United States inflicted a tighter squeeze on Russia's strategic domain with further expansion of NATO and a tenacious contest for influences in Central Asia.
As for the trans-Atlantic alliance, disputes continued over environmental protection, reform of NATO and trade continued and, between Russia and Europe, disagreements prevailed over Chechnya and Russian economic and political reforms.
Security threats loom though many hot spots cooled down
The will to international peace, translated into a wider engagement in dialogue and negotiations, helped cool down many of the world's hot spots this year:
On the Korean peninsula, a breakthrough six-party joint statement signed in September put forward a roadmap for the peaceful settlement of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's nuclear problem;
In the Middle East, a complete Israeli pullout from Gaza in September introduced fruitful talks between the two warring sides over governance in the area and limits on movement of Palestinian goods and people were eased;
In south Asia, where India and Pakistan have fought decades of war over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, a tentative peace process started two years ago saw the birth of bus services linking the divided neighbors this year.
The year of 2005 was also marked by peaceful settlement of interior conflicts in several states:
The Sudanese government and the main southern rebel group signed a comprehensive peace deal in January to end their 21-year war; the Irish Republican Army renounced violence against the British authorities at the end of July; and the Free Aceh Movement in Indonesia dropped its long-held quest for independence in a landmark peace pact signed on August 15.
But on the other hand, local warfare or armed conflicts continued in some states and regions. International terrorism, national separatism and religious extremism keep making waves.
Violence against Americans and among cliques seemed endless in Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts remained stuck in a downward spiral and terror attacks claimed huge life losses in numerous nations from Britain, Russia, Egypt and Jordan to India, Pakistan and Indonesia.
The wrath of Nature, expressed in tsunami, earthquake or hurricane, added to the disasters on Earth.
So, with chronic problems and emerging threats, the world is bound to face numerous challenges after living through some quite hard days in 2005.
Multilateral mechanism: a long way to go
In 2005, the trend toward a multipolar world was also bolstered by progresses in the democratization of international politics, as multilateral mechanisms gained new ground while unilateral practices met with stronger opposition.
On the 60th anniversary of the anti-Fascist victory, over 150 heads of state or government gathered at the United Nations headquarters for discussions on mechanisms of collective security, common development and reforms of the United Nations.
The Second World Conference of Speakers of Parliaments, also held at the UN headquarters in September, concluded with a call for a strong political will and concerted efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.
In parallel, nearly all heavyweight regional or cross-regional organizations have urged those in power to explore ways to tackle issues haunting their regions or the whole world.
Needless to say, a long way lies ahead for the multilateral mechanism to fully play its due role.
It was best illustrated in the contrast between grueling differences of opinions over how to proceed with the UN reforms and the unanimous agreement that this unique international body must gear up for the moving world.
The multilateral mechanism received another hit as UN member-states failed to adopt the comprehensive convention on international terrorism during the sixtieth session of the General Assembly.
Among major regional blocs, the EU saw its credibility and citizens' confidence in it gravely dented when France and the Netherlands said "no" in referendums over its draft Constitution. This negatively affected the decision-making system within the bloc and its influences outside.
World economy grows amid stakes
The International Monetary Fund projected that the world economy would grow by a healthy 4.3 percent in 2005 despite impacts from record high oil prices and unprecedented disasters such as hurricanes, the tsunami and earthquakes.
China and India will keep the trend of rapid growth with an annual growth of 9.0 and 7.1 percent respectively. The US economy will grow by 3.5 percent, the euro-zone 1.2 percent, Russia 5.5 percent and the Japanese economy will start recovering with a growth of 2 percent.
Economic growth in Africa and Latin America will also reach 4.5 and 4.1 percent next year, according to the IMF.
However, threats remain to the world economy, and at the top of all the disturbing factors loom the high oil prices. Other potential threats include a deteriorating current account balance in the United States and consequent dollar fluctuation, an increase in long-term interest rates, falls in property prices, and a major outbreak of bird flu.
Besides, the gap between the two halves of the globe continue to worsen as the North has always promised more in words than acts in helping the South. This constitutes a major challenge to the goal of sustainable growth of the world economy.
(Xinhua News Agency December 20, 2005)
|
