First Ariel Sharon remodelled himself, now Israel's "bulldozer" aims to reshape the landscape of the Middle East forever.

Long the archetypal hawk who urged settlers to grab occupied land and rejected accords with the Palestinians, Sharon has shifted far enough left to form a centrist party with a platform of pursuing peace and giving up isolated settlements.

The transformation that began with the 77-year-old ex-general's widely popular withdrawal from the occupied Gaza Strip has become complete with Sharon's departure from the right-wing Likud after it failed to follow his lead.

Ditching the party he helped found three decades earlier was a move typical of the burly master risk-taker.

Until Sharon shocked Israelis by announcing the Gaza pullout in 2003, there was little hint that the man nicknamed the "bulldozer" would go into reverse gear to leave a very different legacy.

Sharon was elected prime minister in 2001 and 2003 with a pledge for tough action against militants behind suicide bombings.

Sharon's dramatic change in direction came late in 2003 when Israeli forces were having greater success in stopping attacks, but violence had still sunk another chance for negotiations on a US-backed peace "road map."

Sharon set out a plan for giving up all the Gaza settlements and four of 120 in the West Bank selling it as a unilateral move for "disengagement" from the conflict.

The right-wingers he had encouraged to "settle every hilltop" after Israeli forces captured Gaza and the West Bank in the 1967 war were furious at what they perceived as betrayal by their old champion.
 
But by forming an alliance with Labor leftists who would once have laughed at the idea of supporting Sharon, he was able to defeat the settlers and their allies in his own Likud to complete the Gaza pullout in September.
 
Below are some of the scenarios following Sharon's dramatic move.

What happens next?

President Moshe Katsav can ask another party leader to try to form a new government within 21 days. Katsav said he would begin consulting with faction heads to see whether an alternative coalition government could be established and would make his decision soon. Political analysts say no parliamentarian could muster majority support for a new government and that an early election in late February or March was inevitable.

What policies will Sharon pursue if re-elected?

Sharon associates say he is set on taking steps with an avowed policy of ending conflict with the Palestinians to follow up on a unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in September. He has hinted he might also withdraw from isolated parts of the occupied West Bank.

What are his chances of winning?

No one party has ever won enough votes in Israel to establish a government, without forming a coalition with other factions. Recent polls show that Sharon's new party has a good chance of leading the next coalition government.

Who might join his new party?

Sharon has already persuaded 14 of Likud's 40 lawmakers, including five cabinet ministers, to join his new party. He is believed to be courting various leaders from the center-left Labor Party, including Shimon Peres.

And if Sharon loses?

If the center-left Labor Party comes out on top, Sharon could opt to join a Labor-led coalition. Labor is expected to perform well under new leader Amir Peretz, a Moroccan-born trade union leader who could draw votes from Likud's power base, Israelis of Middle Eastern descent.

A Likud victory, which opinion polls deem unlikely, could spell retirement for the 77-year-old former general.

(China Daily November 22, 2005)