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Spotlights of the Canadian political stage are once again set on the New Democratic Party (NDP), a leftist small opposition party which has turned its 18 seats of 308 in the House of Commons into a big say on the fate of the ruling Liberal government.
The NDP leader, Jack Layton, announced on Monday that his party would vote against the embattled government led by Prime Minister Paul Martin in any future confidence vote and trigger an election campaign.
Speaking at a luncheon held by the Canadian and Empire Clubs of Toronto, Layton said the life of the current Parliament is likely to be "limited," but stopped short of saying he would let the government fall.
"What the government is proposing is unacceptable," Layton said of the health-care package proposed on Friday, effectively ending his party's support for the Liberals.
The NDP was the only party willing to keep the Liberals (133 seats in the House of Commons) in power when the Conservatives (98 seats) and Bloc Quebecois (54 seats) attacked the government in May amid a major political funding scandal. In exchange, the NDP got spending concessions from the Liberals.
If united, the three opposition parties will topple the ruling Liberals with a confidence motion on Nov. 15, with a vote possible on Nov. 16. If the government is defeated, Prime Minister Paul Martin would have to dissolve the parliament and there would be a new election.
Some analysts speculate that the Dec. 8 vote on government spending is another opportunity to trigger an election.
For the Conservative leader Stephen Harper, Layton's announcement was but "another episode in the soap opera."
"You know, a soap opera - you watch it every day, and nothing changes," Harper said in Montreal, adding that he expects Layton is continuing to negotiate with the Liberals.
Layton himself has to balance two dangers: he does not want to be seen as supporting a "corrupt" Liberal government, but there are risks in forcing a Christmas election on a wary public.
Among the core NDP constituencies, many would like to see their party continue to use its minority status to wrench concessions from the government.
One of the NDP's biggest backers, automotive union boss Buzz Hargrove, had advised Layton not to pull the plug on the battered government, saying the current House of Commons still has lots of work to do and an election will probably lead to another minority.
Hargrove argued that the NDP, which sways about 20 percent of voters, could be losing its leverage in getting the governing Liberals to implement NDP-friendly policies.
"For us, the best our party can hope for is another minority situation, but we already have that, so what's the advantage of holding an election?" he asked.
Analysts believe that many voters are caught in a political limbo: there is widespread disapproval with the Liberal party that has been in power since 1993, but no obvious enthusiasm for the alternatives.
Liberal popularity plunged last week when a judicial report, which exonerated the then finance minister Martin, confirmed that his predecessor Jean Chretien and his government had awarded millions of dollars in government contracts to party supporters and received kickbacks from them from 1995 to 2002.
Politically the corruption-tainted Liberals are living their worst time, but economically it may be the best time for them to go to the polls.
Statistics to be released in the coming week are expected to reveal that Canada has racked up another fat trade surplus of about 5 billion US dollars in September thanks to solid export growth and high energy prices.
It will add to a string of good economic reports, the latest of which was last week's report of stunning job growth in October that pushed the national jobless rate to a 30-year low of 6.6 percent.
The latest poll puts the Liberal's approval rating at 30 percent, neck to neck with the Conservatives' 31 percent.
(Xinhua News Agency November 8, 2005)
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