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Japan's domestic political and diplomatic climate is unlikely to present a clear picture to the world despite the clear-cut nature of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s landslide victory in the lower house election.
The month-long election battle resulted in the LDP gaining 296 seats in the country's 480-seat House of Representatives, 84 more than it had before the race.
It is also the first time in 15 years that the ruling party has gained an overwhelming majority in the Lower House of Parliament. Together with its coalition partner New Komeito, which won 31 seats, the ruling coalition now has a total of 327 seats, a majority in excess of two-thirds.
The elections represented a crushing defeat for the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, which saw its seats in the chamber plummet to 113 from 177. Katsuya Okada, head of the party, took responsibility for the defeat and immediately resigned his post.
There were several factors behind the LDP's landslide victory.
The party, with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at its core, focused upon the issue of postal privatization, which proved particularly popular with voters. It attracted many floating ballots from non-partisan voters as well as the support of Japan's financial circles.
This was part of the thinking behind the party's easy-to-understand election slogan that reform cannot stop or pause. The policy satisfied the Japanese people's wishes to rejuvenate their country through reforms.
Also playing a key role in the LDP's victory was the large number of hereditary members within the party. As candidates of a large party, they find it relatively easy to be elected in the country's 300 electoral districts.
Then there is the fact that Koizumi did not pay homage to the Yasukuni Shrine on August 15 this year, a move that was seen to have boosted his popularity among voters. It also secured New Komeito's full support of the Koizumi administration. With this backing, the prime minister was able to move ahead with the postal privatization program, thus helping the LDP gain opinion dominance.
The victory is expected to have a far-flung influence on the country's domestic politics and diplomacy.
Koizumi has expressed his wish to step down as prime minister when his term as head of the LDP expires in September 2006. However, calls have come from within the party and Japan's financial circles, for him to stay in his post until 2007 when the Upper House holds elections. With his popularity rising in Japan, Koizumi will enjoy an increasing say in deciding who stands in an election to become the next LDP president.
He is likely to enjoy a similar boost to his legislative power, the LDP-New Komeito majority in the lower house allowing the postal privatization bill to be formally passed in the chamber even if it meets with opposition from the upper house.
In November, when LDP celebrates its 50th anniversary, it is due to submit a revision of the country's Pacifist Constitution. With only nine seats and seven seats respectively in the lower house, Japan's Communist Party and Social Democratic Party, which are opposed to constitutional reform, will have difficulty stopping such a move.
While remaining in the power coalition, New Komeito also witnessed a decline in its influence, seeing its total seats fall to 31 from the previous 33.
Koizumi's track record indicates that he is likely to become more stubborn and resistant to any opposition opinions now that his power has been reaffirmed.
The coalition remains for the time being, but the removal of New Komeito cannot be ruled out should the party fail to support policies adopted by the LDP. If this happens, the LDP would realize a situation of one-party rule in the country.
As regards its foreign policy, there will be no fundamental changes.
Japan will continue to pursue a foreign policy with its ties with the US as the core, and at the same time stress international coordination.
However, despite this consolidation of relations, Japan and the US are likely to encounter conflicts on the issues of American military redeployment in Japan and Japan's beef imports from the US.
It is expected that Koizumi will try to ease Japan's strained ties with China and South Korea at the East Asian Summit to be held in November and through various other multilateral events.
But outlook for relations between Tokyo and Beijing is not optimistic, and a deterioration in bilateral ties remains a possibility.
At a meeting between heads of the country's parties held in late August, Koizumi said he would make an appropriate judgment about his Yasukuni pilgrimage and that China should understand this. He also said Sino-Japanese relations were not certain to improve even if he stops visit to the shrine.
At the meeting, Koizumi also tried to dodge taking responsibility for the years-long pause in high-level visits between the two nations.
Koizumi's habit of regularly paying his respects to the Yasukuni Shrine is widely seen by the Chinese people as being unreasonable and has caused great offence. A veteran Japanese diplomat pointed out that this is the main reason for the breakdown in high-level exchanges between the two countries.
Even as the country was going to the polls, the head of New Komeito persuaded Koizumi to take a cautious attitude on the issue.
If Koizumi becomes excessively self-confident following his victory, misunderstands public opinion and takes a tougher stance on international affairs, there is no way Japan can fundamentally improve ties with its Asian neighbors.
Evidence also shows that the country's tactics to separate its economic ties with China from bilateral political ties are doomed to failure.
The chill in political relations between the two countries has led to coldness in bilateral economic ties.
According to statistics released by China's Ministry of Commerce, between January and July 2005 the rise in Sino-Japanese trade volume slowed to 9.2 percent on the same period of last year, compared to an increase of 28.2 percent between January-July 2004 over the same period in 2003.
China's exports increased by 19.3 percent and its imports by 1.9 percent between January and July 2005, compared to figures of 23.5 percent and 31.8 percent respectively for the same period of last year.
For Japanese enterprises, the strong demand from China in recent years seems to have ended.
During this period, the European Union's share in China's foreign trade volume expanded to 15.5 percent, the US' 15 percent, while Japan's decreased to 13.3 percent.
In terms of its direct investment in China, Japan's position has been usurped by South Korea. In 2004, its contracted direct investment in China was US$9.2 billion, far behind the US$13 billion from South Korea.
The country's market shares in China are expected to further decline in the coming years if Sino-Japanese political ties do not make a turn for the better, and its status as a leading trading partner of China is likely to be marginalized.
We hope the new Japanese Cabinet will take insightful actions toward rehabilitating and developing ties with China.
We hope the Japanese government and leaders, in the spirit of maintaining Sino-Japanese friendship as well as Asian stability and development, can take a serious look at the history issue and make sure its past apologies and words of self-examination to Asian victims can become concrete actions, just as Chinese President Hu Jintao called for on September 3.
(China Daily September 15, 2005)
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