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At a seminar sponsored by China Daily last week, leading researchers analyzed current Sino-US relations and offered their opinions on how the future visit to the US by President Hu Jintao will further strengthen bilateral ties. The following are some of their thoughts:
More than a decade has passed since the end of the Cold War. Sino-US relations have grown so much that their pace, scope and depth have exceeded all expectations.
The relationship grew out of the post-Cold War transitional period into a dynamic one that features both mutual dependence and intensifying competition. It is a relationship that is forever changing, yet has a solid foundation, and is unlikely to suffer a severe deterioration unless any very serious emergency happens.
The two countries share common and overlapping interests as exchanges grow more frequent and mutual influence and the ability to fulfill each other's needs increase in every conceivable area.
One of the results is the lessening tension with which each side conducts the bilateral relationship. The Clinton administration claimed it had established a "strategic partnership" with China, and the Bush administration wants a "constructive, cooperative relationship." Whatever the name or form, it amounts to the acknowledgement of and support for an ever-growing mutual dependence.
China values its relations with the US and believes sound ties are conducive to regional and world peace and prosperity. When there are difficulties in the relationship, it is mostly because the US has taken unilateral and negative action, which can have a number of, and sometimes complex, causes.
The rising interdependence brings mutual benefits when there is cooperation, and causes mutual damage when there is confrontation. Decision-makers and the general public can more and more easily feel the impact. The interdependence has also become a valve that releases pressure and a propeller that modulates the movement of the relationship and regulates its future growth. It compels decision-makers from both nations to be rational and seek compromise in times of trouble, friction and crises, and to keep each one's fundamental interests from harm.
As the two sides overcome various kinds of difficulties and increase cooperation, the relationship has taken on the following characteristics:
Sino-US relations include the fundamental and strategic interests of both countries, and the relations have a major impact on world politics. Prudence in handling the relationship is mandatory as each side, under the constraints of outside forces, does not have a free hand on important issues.
The bilateral relationship includes multiple areas, such as politics, economy, culture and military affairs, reaching into all levels of government. This determines that each side's foreign policy regarding the other will be affected by domestic interest groups and may not be able to display a coordinated or consistent attitude.
As the two countries broaden the scope of overlapping interests, the relationship grows multi-layered and interwoven. Benefits and harm coexist, and so do conflicts and compromises, or competition and cooperation. "Enemy" or "friend," "competitor" or "partner," none of these simple words is or will be able to encapsulate the complexity of the relationship.
Sino-US relations have infiltrated each other's social fabric and have become a force to be reckoned with in each other's domestic politics. The influence is multi-faceted and not limited to one incident or one particular notion that a certain social segment may hold. In other words, a viewpoint which is popular for a while will not necessarily be propagated across social strata. Both sides have the possibility to influence the other's society and internal policies.
These characteristics have determined that the two countries have to seek compromise and mutual benefit rather than solely act on one's own instinct. This is confirmed by decades of Sino-US relations.
At the same time interdependence grows, so does competition. In some areas, including geopolitics, resources and markets, ideologies, civilizations and cultural values, the two countries are at odds with each other. Specifically, there is the competition for clout in East Asia, which means constant readjustment of each other's positioning in the region as the time and situation warrant.
China has no intention of challenging the US' position in the world, including its position in East Asia. However, East Asia is the main stage for China, whose role as the country grows is bound to expand.
Currently, neither country is seeking confrontation, nor bases its survival and growth on the other's decline. On the other hand, stability of the relationship needs a few strings attached, which will provide clues for understanding where relations will go.
The first condition: Decision-makers from both countries want to develop the relationship, a wish grown out of each side's domestic need. Undeniably, internal forces from each country have different strength. The Chinese focus is based mostly on social matters, whereas the US' is more concerned with trade and security, such as the post-September 11 anti-terror war.
The second condition: China's reform and opening-up and the foreign policy that goes with them will not be reversed, and the US will not challenge China's core interests. As it stands, it is the latter that is the main concern.
The third condition: Both sides should abandon the Cold War mentality. Only when they have a full grasp of the substantial changes in the relationship will they be able to handle the impact that China's growth will bring to it and to world politics.
An American diplomat once commented: The US does not have the capability to stop the trend that China becomes a world power; in the global context, any conflict between China and the US will be a world catastrophe; the US must find a way to get along with China even when it cannot work with China in all areas. The essence of this remark is, give up the Cold War mentality and get to know the importance of Sino-US cooperation in a world of globalization.
(China Daily September 5, 2005)
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