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Israel's unilateral pullout from Gaza and part of West Bank will undoubtedly produce extensive influence in the conflict-plagued region, but lingering disputes on basic issues still clouds the future of the Israelis and Palestinians, analysts said.
"The pullout, set to start on August 15, will certainly exert great influence to the Israelis and Palestinians, since it represents a major shift in the political landscape of the Middle East of a kind that is seen only every decade or so," Professor Morchechai Nissan, an expert on politics in Hebrew University, told Xinhua on phone Sunday.
"The situation now is very complicated, and there is no sign for both sides of the capability of solving the basic disputes like the final status of East Jerusalem," he said.
Some others say that the historic pullout will provide an opportunity to renew the US-backed roadmap peace plan, which envisions an independent Palestinian state.
Israel may draw its permanent borders
After over four years of bloody conflict erupted in September 2000, Sharon said the Jewish presence in Gaza has become untenable, with more than 8,000 Jews in 21 settlements living isolated from 1.3 million Palestinians.
In a bid to protect the settlers from Palestinian militant's attack, Israel deployed more than 10,000 soldiers in Gaza, putting heavy burden on state budget.
Sharon once said pulling out of Gaza would help Israel cement its hold on large settlement blocs in the West Bank home to 240,000 settlers.
Palestinian militant groups, however, insist the Israelis are forced out of Gaza by their armed resistance, while the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) says the pullout must be followed by withdrawal from more Palestinian lands.
But some fear that Israel's first withdrawal from the occupied Palestinian territories since the 1967 Middle East War might also be the last one.
"Israel may decide to draw its permanent borders unilaterally and lock up the Palestinians behind the separation fences," he said.
It's the first step toward state or not
"Israel's pullout from Gaza, in a way, will improve the living conditions of Palestinians in Gaza, which will enhance the credibility for the moderate Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, "Nissan explained.
Meanwhile, Palestinian Premier Qurei said earlier that the pullout was a major accomplishment for the Palestinians that would eventually lead them to their dream of an independent state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital. Nissan, however, contradicted Qurei's words, saying that he doesn't think a Palestinian state will be soon in sight after the pullout, citing sharp differences on outstanding issues.
"Given the way that facts on the ground, without a major push by the United States and major concessions by each side, no independent Palestinian state is in sight at present," he stressed." It remains to be seen whether it represents an opportunity to clear the way for a final two-state agreement under the US-brokered roadmap peace plan," he added.
"All in all, the future of the Middle East is still in uncertainty due to the differences on the issue of Jerusalem and refugees etc." he concluded.
(Xinhua News Agency August 15, 2005)
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