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Nuclear problems in the world are like waves that surge one after another. The fourth round of six-party talks on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue was just adjourned; the Iranian nuclear issue has begun to heat up. As to whether or not the reopened talks can solve the disputes, concerned countries' sincerity for peace and the wisdom of the international community will face tests.
Centering round the nuclear issue, Britain, France and Germany have conducted 21-month-long seesaw negotiation with Iran. The reopened talks on nuclear issue are sparked by Iran's dissatisfaction with the proposal advanced by Britain, France and Germany. However, the Iranian nuclear issue, in the final analysis, is a struggle between the US and Iran.
After the September 11 incident in 2001, counter-terrorism and prevention of nuclear proliferation have become two principal axes of US diplomacy. Iran is a country on the list of the "axis of evil" declared by the US, and it is swiftly marching toward the nuclear threshold, it thus naturally becomes the major target of precaution and attack.
In dealing with so-called "rogue" countries, the traditional practice of the US is, firstly, imposition of sanctions, and secondly, military attack, while Europe advocates peaceful negotiation. On the question of stopping Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold, Britain, France and Germany are homely with the US, only they want to seize the dominant right from US hands to solve the Iranian question.
Taking advantage of nuclear negotiation, Britain, France and Germany want to pressurize Iran into abandoning its nuclear program, they can't allow the breaking down of the negotiation on nuclear issue and thus be put onto US track. Iran, on its part, makes full use of the contradiction between the US and Europe and come to a compromise in its advance and retreat. The Iranian nuclear issue has actually become a tripartite game of America, Europe and Iran.
Iran is a signatory nation to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), it has promised not to develop nuclear weapons. However, according to the treaty, Iran has the right to peacefully use nuclear energy. In view of this, Iran insists that it has the right to independently produce fuels needed for nuclear stations. Actually, once Iran masters the technology for producing nuclear fuel (enrich uranium), so Iran is one step away from the production of nuclear weapons. Britain, France and Germany require Iran to give up all activities related to the processing of enriched uranium, but Iran insists that it has the right to do so. This is the bone of contention.
On August 8, Iran publicized the reopening of its Isfahan axle conversion facilities, this is the tough attitude taken by Iran in protest against the package program presented by Britain, France and Germany. However, observers have noticed that while it reopened axle conversion facilities, Iran did not start the most sensitive centrifugal separation factory for the processing of enriched uranium. This shows that Iran still leaves room for the resumption of negotiation in the next step.
Though the Europeans threaten that they would hand over the Iranian nuclear issue to the UN Security Council for discussion, as a matter of fact, this is a result which they are most reluctant to see, and is what Iran is trying hard to avoid. And this is also the biggest common divisor between Iran and Britain, France and Germany. That being the case, the international community still retains some optimism about the prospect of the Iranian nuclear issue.
The Non-Proliferation Treaty is a gaming rule laid down under US dominance. It has indeed played a role in containing the spread of nuclear weapons. In this sense, the treaty is of positive significance. However, this is, after all, tackling temporary and not permanent issues.
The fundamental question is that this world is by no means tranquil, the independence and sovereignty of many countries are threatened by unilateralism and pre-emptive policies. Although people are aware that nuclear weapons are not panacea for protecting national security, furthermore, real victims are innocent people round the world, but when it is regarded as a kind of deterrent means, its charisma does not diminish.
Along with the spread of knowledge about nuclear science and nuclear technology, plus the proliferation of nuclear reactors and the nuclear materials, the technology, materials and equipment for processing enriched uranium are no longer mysterious. Like narcotic drugs, they can be gained on black market. This has greatly stimulated the desire of a group of small and medium-sized countries for nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, the formulator of the gaming rules is operating against regulations and introduces multiple standards, thus greatly weakened the authoritativeness of the treaty. Clearly, to dispel the nuclear shadow over the sky of the world, it is still necessary to tackle the problem from its source.
(People's Daily August 12, 2005)
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