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The shock raised by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's unexpected triumph in the presidential election has faded away, and local analysts, who have soon recovered from the stun, have begun probing into the reasoning cause of the dark horse's success.
Ahmadinejad has excellently played the "class card" and "religion card" since the country is seeing increasingly wider gap between the rich and the poor, said the analysts.
The runoff between humble-looking Ahmadinejad and his alleged wealthy rival, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has been viewed by analysts as a contest between different social classes they represent.
Before the runoff voting on June 24, public opinion polls all pointed favorably to Rafsanjani, who had been the frontrunner of the race for months.
Rafsanjani was hailed due to his pragmatic minds in both domestic and diplomatic affairs and newly adopted open attitude toward the youth.
The former president was generally supported by the middle and upper classes, which could be vaguely classified into the congregation of "rich people" according to the sociological paradigm of Iran.
The rich people, having obtained freedom from worries over bread and shelter, are looking forward to the freedom in social meaning. They backed the rumor-riddled Rafsanjani just because they disagreed with Ahmadinejad to a greater extent.
However, a large number of the rich, deeply dissatisfied with the current situation, refused to vote in the two rounds of elections, which weakened Rafsanjani and other reformist candidates.
On the other hand, Ahmadinejad is warmly loved by the country's poor people, who account for a much greater part of Iran's population and were convinced of the claim that the humble-looking blacksmith's son could lead them to a better life.
Moreover, Ahmadinejad promised to reallocate the huge profit of oil in the campaign, which many people said to benefit just some interest groups for now.
He termed the move as his first battle to promote social justice. Such a pledge has been proven to be more attractive than the empty slogan of "social justice" shouted by other conservative candidates.
The poor, especially those in remote countryside, had few chances to show their appreciation of Ahmadinejad in various polls, but they had ballots. This is an important factor ignored before but discovered after the election by many analysts and predictors. Ahmadinejad's another hunk share of votes came from loyal religious people, who have already been extremely intolerant of the loosening of some religious restrictions upon people's life by the outgoing reformist president, Mohammad Khatami, during the past eight years.
The conservative religious Iranians expect a hardliner to drag the country's atmosphere back to the fundamentalist stage. Ahmadinejad's ultra-conservative image built up during his term of office as Tehran mayor and his slogan of defending the Islamic laws and morals during the campaign made him popular among the conservatives and favored by top mullahs in the country.
The victory of Ahmadinejad indeed revealed a fact that the ultra-conservative politics still enjoy a considerable market in the Islamic Republic, which analysts said should not be ignored in the future.
The successful play of class card and religion card at a critical juncture of time has brought an unknown mayor to the post of president.
It has provoked the contemplations on Iran's true situation and the Iranian people's real want, a more vivid picture veiled from the world by inaccurate and inadequate presentation of media.
However, it must point out that the president-elect cannot rely on these two cards after his assumption of power because the image of pauper hero and apologist is far from enough to be a good president.
The lucky man, as local media termed, shoulders more expectations now, stressed the analysts.
(Xinhua News Agency July 1, 2005)
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