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Which Way Forward for EU?

Despite the, now double, rejection of the proposed European Union constitution, no EU leader has so far been willing to deliver the Last Rites to the project because they do not want to be blamed for killing it off.  

Such sensitivity means that a careful diplomatic dance is likely to be played out over the next two weeks before European leaders meet for their summer summit in Brussels.

 

With 99.8 percent of the ballots counted, unofficial results showed 61.6 percent voted "nee," while 38.4 percent said "ja."

 

The level of opposition and turnout of 62.8 percent exceeded all projections.

 

Dutch newspaper headlines yesterday were as bold as the Dutch vote. "Devastating no," said the mass circulation Algemeen Dagblad, and "Rock solid no," wrote the popular Telegraaf.

 

The Volkskrant daily called the outcome "the reckoning of the common man," and said "The Dutch were always at the forefront of European Union, but now the good kid in the class is the scene of an anti-European rebellion."

 

In the wake of this double rejection, European leaders, who placed their heads in the sand after France's emphatic rejection of the EU constitution, are now likely to become experts in the thoughts of Lady Bracknell.

 

To lose one referendum may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness, as the fierce aunt in Oscar Wilde's The Importance of Being Earnest might have said.

 

With this double rejection leaders in "new" Europe, who believe it is now impossible to hold referendums in their countries, are hoping the double no from France and the Netherlands will act as a wake up call for "old" Europe.

 

To the delight of Eurosceptics, Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder responded to the French no by insisting that the ratification process should continue even after the constitution had been rejected by the founding member of the European project.

 

Britain, Poland and the Czech Republic believe that "old" Europe will now realize it is pointless to call for further referendums when the constitution is in such doubt.

 

Charles Grant, the director of the Center for European Reform, said: "The treaty has been dead since Sunday night.

 

But maybe more politicians will start to tell the truth and say it is dead. A lot of governments have been pretending that everything is going to be all right. That is for the birds."

 

Tony Blair, who is determined to cancel the referendum in Britain, will step up the pressure on Chirac at the summit by asking whether he will hold a second vote -- the only way of reviving the treaty.

 

Knowing this is highly unlikely, Blair hopes Chirac will eventually have to concede the game is up.

 

Wounded by the 55 percent no vote, which he blames on fears about an "Anglo-Saxon" economy sweeping across Europe, Chirac will be in no mood to give Britain an easy ride.

 

He may insist that every country observes the treaty, which declares that leaders should only review the ratification process if one fifth of EU countries have failed to pass the treaty.

 

"Chirac will just be bloody minded [at the summit] and try to pass the buck to Britain and say ratification should continue," Grant said. "But I'm not sure how much moral authority he will speak with."

 

A key moment may come next Monday when Jack Straw, the UK foreign secretary, gives his first formal response to the French and Dutch votes.

 

As a one-time Eurosceptic, who privately believes the constitution cannot be rescued, Straw may nudge France along by saying he is suspending the parliamentary bill that must be passed to allow a referendum to be held in Britain.

 

The Czech government showed on Wednesday that doubts are creeping in when it called for an extension for the 2006 ratification deadline.

 

Jiri Paroubek, the prime minister, who insisted that his three- party ruling coalition still backs the treaty, said they had factored in a French rejection. "We feel countries need more time for ratification."

 

Supporters of the constitution will accept a delay but insist the treaty must still be given a chance.

 

Alex Stubb, a visiting professor at the College of Europe in Bruges who is also a Finnish member of the European Parliament, said: "We should go on with the ratification. This is like a snooker game with 25 frames -- if we reach 22 frames won out of 25 we are doing quite well. Perhaps the countries that have voted against will have to reassess."

 

Stubb's views reflect the thinking of the European Commission that insisted again yesterday that ratification should continue on the grounds that 49 percent of the EU has ratified the treaty after a series of parliamentary votes.

 

Critics say a no in a referendum carries much more weight than a parliamentary vote.

 

There were signs last night that some leaders were finally realizing that the political landscape has changed.

 

Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, the president of the Party of European Socialists, made no mention of the need to continue the ratification process, in contrast to a clear demand on Sunday.

 

Europe will enter a period of uncertainty that could pit the likes of Chirac against Blair.

 

With the "big three" of France, Germany and Britain all expected to change leaders within the next few years, it may be left to a new generation to pick up the pieces.

 

(China Daily June 3, 2005)

Dutch 'No' Deals Another Blow to EU Charter
Dutch Voters Reject EU Constitution
Why France Rejects EU Constitution?
French Referendum Rejects EU Constitution
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