The world will become more prosperous as global economic growth is likely to continue this year, but it will become more dangerous as well due to the threats of nuclear proliferation and terrorist attacks, said a leading US foreign policy expert.  

Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy at the Washington-based think tank Cato Institute, told Xinhua that the big economic picture for this year is that the expansion of the global economy is likely to continue, the US economy looks healthier than several years ago and China is becoming an ever more important factor in the global economy.

In addition, Japan's economy seems to be reviving at long last and the European Union also shows signs of faster economic growth. "So the economic indicators look encouraging," he said.

However, he warned the world is also going to become more dangerous with the lingering threats of nuclear weapons proliferation and terrorist threats. "The radical Islamic terrorist groups are capable of inflicting damage almost anywhere in the world," he said.

Meanwhile, Carpenter said that US President George W. Bush, interpreting his re-election victory as a vindication for his unilateralist foreign policy during his first term, is more likely to confront Iran or Syria accused by Washington of meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq.

"The US, because of its confrontational posture toward Iran and Syria, could create even more violence in the name of fighting the war on terror, even though one can argue that the war on terror really has little to do with these disputes," he said.

Carpenter, the author of six books and the editor of 10 books on international affairs, also expressed his viewpoints on China-US relations, Iraq, Iran and the Middle East peace process.

Sino-US relations

Sino-US relations have been on "a rather sound basis" ever since the US spy plane accident in 2001 and there has been good cooperation both economically and politically between the two powers, Carpenter said.

However, Carpenter noted that "the Taiwan issue remains potentially a very disruptive issue in US-China relations," adding that the Bush Administration will have to continue to handle the Taiwan issue delicately and balance its policy.

Overall, the US will try to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Straits. "The US will be quite happy to see the status quo on the Taiwan issue go on for years, if not decades," he said.

Iraq

President Bush has vowed not to postpone Iraq's elections scheduled for later this month because a delay of the elections would mean defeat for the US, Carpenter said.

Carpenter said that despite the insurgency in Iraq, it is possible to hold the elections as scheduled, though the outcome of the elections might not be welcome to the US.

The Shiite Muslims enjoy a 60 percent majority in Iraq's 25 million population and Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, head of Iraq's Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution and a Shiite Muslim, has been one of the most popular figures in Iraq.

With Iraq gradually becoming a magnet for Islamic radicals throughout the region, the US forces should withdraw out of Iraq "as quickly as possible" after Iraq's elections, or it might repeat the Soviet experience in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

"We will see if the Bush administration is smart enough to seize the opportunity. I am not optimistic," Carpenter said.

Iran

"The US has a very suspicious and hostile policy toward Iran," Carpenter said, adding that the Bush administration has been openly skeptical about the EU-3 (France, Germany and Britain) efforts to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran.

Moreover, "the US has repeatedly turned down overtures from Iran for friendly relations, even for cooperation on the al-Qaeda issue. So this is just a very hostile, very uncompromising policy," he said.

Iran has said it is willing to open nuclear talks with the US if it treats Iran as an equal partner, but the US has shown no interest in doing so.

To carpenter, if diplomacy fails to resolve Iran's nuclear dispute, the Bush administration will consider launching preemptive military strikes against suspected nuclear sites in Iran and meanwhile assisting forces against the Iranian government to ultimately achieve a regime change.

DPRK

Carpenter lamented the snail-paced six-party talks aimed at resolving the nuclear disputes between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the US and warned that the Bush administration may be only patient for another year or another year and a half.

"I think maybe we have another year or so, maybe another year and a half of negotiations before the Bush administration starts thinking about much more coarse, much more hard-line measures," he said.

Three rounds of the six-party talks, hosted by China, have been held and no breakthroughs have been made.

Carpenter noted that without changing its hostile policy toward the DPRK, the US has "absolutely" no chance of making the DPRK give up its nuclear weapons program.

Middle East peace

Carpenter said after the death of former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and with a much more flexible and moderate Mahmoud Abbas emerging as the front runner in Palestine's coming elections, the long-stalled Middle East peace process now faces an opportunity.

However, Abbas, if he could win the elections scheduled for later this month, faces the daunting task of reining in the Palestinian extremist organizations such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.

If he is able to do so and if he has an Israeli negotiating partner willing to make concessions and compromises, "then there will be a chance for real progress on the peace negotiations," he said.

Meanwhile, the Israeli government must also be able to curb extremism in the Jewish country as well, Carpenter said.

Carpenter insisted that the "roadmap" peace plan, drafted by the US, the United Nations, Russia and Europe in 2003, should become the blueprint for the Middle East peace process, though the roadmap plan should have some modifications.

Russia

With the US increasing its influence in countries belonging to the former Soviet bloc and establishing military presence in Central Asia and most recently, with the US pointing fingers at Russia for meddling in the Ukraine elections, Russia is certainly unhappy and "there have been a lot of grievances on the Russian side toward the US," Carpenter said.

"There is certainly some friction developing in US-Russian relationship. I think Russia is going to be less passive about the expansion of US influence in Central Asia," he said.

Russia has slammed the US for building up military presence in Central Asia, long regarded as Russia's backyard and has taken some counter measures such as strengthening relations with countries such as Byelorussia and Ukraine.

Nevertheless, "the areas of cooperation between the US and Russia will probably prevent their relationship from really becoming nasty and unfriendly," Carpenter said, adding that Russia may take a "cooler and less friendly" stance toward the US and the West in the coming years.

Europe

The Iraq war, strongly opposed by France and Germany, has ignited the biggest crisis in the transatlantic relationship since the Cold War. Although Bush vows to repair the relationship and will visit Europe after his inauguration in early 2005, he would like to improve transatlantic relationship on Washington's terms, Carpenter said.

"He (Bush) is not willing to compromise, he is not willing to make concessions to the Europeans. He expects them to make the concessions and get in line behind the US policy," Carpenter said.

According to him, as the US and Europe have so many disagreements and as an economically prosperous Europe vies to increase its voice and role in international affairs, the US and Europe will "go further and further apart" on policy issues, although this does not mean that they will become enemies.

"Europe is beginning to develop its own cohesion through the EU. It recognizes that European interests and US interests may overlap on many occasions, but are not identical. Europe is increasingly standing up for its own interests, defending its interests wherever it can," he said.

However, Carpenter said the main problem for Europe is its military weakness. "The EU will be a very credible actor if it adds a common security policy and military to back it up. But it does not. Therefore it is a very ambivalent actor in world affairs," he said.

(Xinhua News Agency January 5, 2005)