The shadow of terrorism has shrouded the world since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. World affairs researchers tracking the ever-intensifying geopolitical global scene are overwhelmed by the constant shift of international order. 

The morning of "9.11" was a defining moment in the bloody annals of global terrorist outrages.

It was followed by nightclub bombings in the Indonesian tourist resort of Bali, the blasts in Zamboanga in the Philippines, Casablanca in Morocco, the car bombings in Mumbai, the Marriot Hotel attack in Jakarta ... the list goes on.

Then came the carnage at the school in Beslan, at the start of September, which left the civilized world reeling in disbelief. The deliberate targeting of children broke the final taboo.

In the preceding days Russia had been hit by two hijacked plane crashes in southern Russia on August 24 and the Rizhskaya metro station bombing in Moscow on August 31. Pick up any newspaper or tune into the television or radio over the last three years and words like "terror" and "anti-terror" seem to dominate.

Despite this, people are not fully aware of the profound changes that have affected the international order. Other factors, besides terrorism, such as NATO's eastward expansion, EU expansion and soaring international oil prices have had a profound influence on the international scene.

First of the changes was brought by the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In April 2004, seven East European countries Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria joined NATO, taking the total of member countries to 26.

In May the European Union (EU) undertook its fifth and most significant expansion.

The rapid growth of these powerful international organizations has caused unease in Russia. And while the United States is happy to see NATO growing stronger, the EU's swift growth rattled it somewhat.

Russia's feelings towards NATO are complicated, because some of the new members were old Warsaw bloc countries.

On the one hand, Russia pledges cooperation with the ever-stronger NATO, while on the other, it seeks to curb the body's eastward expansion.

The founding of the EU has long been the dream of some Europeans, who hope to eventually achieve the grand unification of all European countries.

In some quarters there are moves afoot to distance the EU from reliance on the United States by building a security defense system of its own and ultimately becoming a key player in today's multipolar world.

Some people have been left wondering why the seven East European countries opted to join NATO, effectively abandoning their old "family ties" with Russia. The answer can be found in Europe's history and political landscape.

Under the North Atlantic Treaty any violation of a member state's territory and sovereignty is a violation of NATO as a whole. Furthermore, those East European countries have a strong "Europe Complex" and deep-seated longing to extricate themselves from the shadow of Russia.

The European Union is a successful example of an integrated body, and doubtless has a promising future. Joining the EU affords these countries opportunities for economic rejuvenation.

As NATO and the EU begin to pose unprecedentedly strong pressure on Russia, it will need to readjust its position in a now unbalanced international order. Among the most pressing tasks topping the Russian Government's agenda are, firstly, to encourage the Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to remain outside NATO for the time being, and secondly, for Russia to develop closer ties with its neighbors to the east, in particular China.

Economic and trade conflicts between China and Russia in recent years have not affected their desire to achieve greater cooperation and substantive progress is likely on this front.

Thirdly, energy resources have proved a tricky problem for Russia.

Its abundant energy resources require a sound overseas market to translate their worth into strategic resources for the benefit of the whole country. China, Japan and South Korea are the three most crucial economic entities to Russia, yet they have their respective interests and priorities.

(China Daily September 13, 2004)