Chinese trade experts in Beijing predicted that the damage to the country's foreign trade caused by SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) was limited and could be made up in the latter half of 2003.
Li Yushi, deputy president of the Institute of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation attached to the Ministry of Commerce (MOC), said Friday that new contracts dropped due to the canceling or postponing of trade fairs, especially in the country's economic engine, Guangdong Province.
But the executed contracts and trade volume might increase with the help of traditional clients and the electronic business, Li said.
The disease's influence on the service trade exceeded that of the cargo trade, Li said, and there would be no fatal damage to foreign trade as a whole.
Exports of capital-intense machinery and high-tech products suffered less than labor-intense agricultural products, toys, fabric products and garments, Li said.
Zhao Jinping, a researcher in the Development Research Center of the State Council, said the actual influence would emerge in May or June, even in the third quarter.
There would be a rebound in foreign trade in the later months of the third quarter, Zhao said, adding that the country would see a favorable trade balance with lower growth compared with last year.
He emphasized the importance for Chinese enterprises to conduct e-business, saying that is a trend of international market and a long-term requirement to the companies.
Jin Bosheng, deputy director of the foreign investment department of the MOC's Institute of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation said the signed contracts of trade and investment in the first quarter and last year would be helpful in easing the pressure in the second quarter of 2003.
If the disease was contained quickly, China's foreign trade might increase by 10 to 13 percent this year, lower than the 20 percent growth of 2002, Li said.
(Xinhua News Agency May 30, 2003)
