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One death changes everything. The frequently proven saying in western politics is once more buttressed as British Prime Minister Tony Blair is hurled into his worst-yet political crisis following the death of arms expert David Kelly, who had been at the center of claims Britain "sexed-up" its case for war on Iraq.
Though Blair, who is serving his second tenure in office and pursuing a third, has said he will not quit over the affair, analysts believe the Kelly affair has inflicted an irreversible hurt on Blair's leadership.
Kelly, an expert in the Ministry of Defense, was found dead on July 18 in woods near his home with his wrist slit. It was days after he was grilled by a parliamentary committee investigating claims in the media that he had been the main source of a BBC report that said Downing Street had "sexed up" evidence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in order to take the country into the US-led war on Iraq.
The Blair administration has vowed to conduct an independent inquiry into Kelly's death. Analysts believe, as the probe led by Lord Hutton proceeds, a number of top government officials will be pressured to resign for the way in which they treated a scientist. And Blair, whose popularity has dropped noticeably, would in turn be pushed to a more vulnerable position.
"His (Hutton's) report could threaten many careers -- those of Greg Dyke, the director-general of the BBC, Alastair Campbell, the prime minister's communications director, Geoff Hoon, the defense secretary, and even the prime minister himself," said Vernon Bogdanor, a professor of government at Oxford University.
Blair, who rushed back Wednesday night from his Asian tour, was reported to have had long discussions with Campbell and Hoon, both held responsible for the leak of Kelly's name to the press. The pair, Blair's close aides, would have to go if the inquiry criticizes the way the government treated a scientist.
Local media have quoted senior officials of the ruling Labor Party as saying the Kelly affair had made such changes "inevitable", and if Blair fails to "reinvigorate" the tightly-knit team around him, his chance for a third term would be slim.
What worries the prime minister more is the fallen popularity of himself and his government as the next general election is only two years away. Over half those surveyed in a recent poll say they no longer believe Blair and his administration are strong enough to handle the challenges it faces. And 68 percent of the respondents even questioned the government's honesty, saying: "There is a culture of deceit and spin at the heart of the government."
Kelly's death has caused "a nationwide crisis of confidence," Prof. Bogdanor commented.
Fanning the resentment against Blair, the opposition Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were pressing for broadening the inquiry over Kelly's death into the circumstances surrounding the Iraq war.
The latest poll shows the Conservatives have widened their lead to three points, up one point from last month when they overtook Labor for the first time in a decade. They were on 37 percent, Labor 34 and the Liberal Democrats 22.
On the Kelly case, it is thought a limited inquiry and a quick solution will be in the interests of Blair.
As widely expected, however, Lord Hutton will have to ask whether Kelly was indeed the source for the BBC report, and whether the hotly-contested BBC report misrepresented him.
As a result of this, it would be hard for the inquiry not to explore how the Iraq dossiers were prepared, what was behind the key claim that Saddam Hussein could deploy weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes, and the alleged pressure inflicted on the intelligence services by the government during the run-up to the Iraq war.
"We need a wider inquiry into the real reasons why this country was taken into a war that has claimed not only too many lives as its victims, but the nation's trust in its leaders as well," an Independent editorial urged.
"Without indisputable evidence about the threat from weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Iraq will remain a shadow over his (Blair's) premiership. His party and union critics will be emboldened, while resistance to reforms such as foundation hospitals and university tuition fees will increase," veteran political analyst Peter Riddell wrote in The Times newspaper.
With the dramatic loss of public trust, "Blair's battle for political authority could easily turn into a struggle for survival," Riddell added.
Although Blair is supposed to survive the current crisis, unless there is surprising new evidence of his links with the scientist's death, both his reputation for strong leadership and the public trust for his honesty will probably to be further shattered.
Analysts also warn that what is more dreadful for Blair, who on August 2 will be the Labor leader with the longest term in power, is that he might from now on lurch from crisis to crisis unless clear evidence of Iraq's WMD is found.
(Xinhua News Agency July 27, 2003)
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