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Two decades ago when he was publicizing China's strategic objective for the end of the century, Qian Zhi, who was newly graduated from the Economics Department of Shanghai-based Fudan University, was not very sure of it himself.
"The objective, to have the country's GDP of the year 1980 quadrupled by 2000 to reach 2.8 trillion yuan (US$338.69 billion), sounded astronomical at that time," recalls Qian Zhi now attending the on-going 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) as a delegate.
Economist Hu Angan, who is following the congress, admits that when the objective was first proposed, no one in the rest of the world seemed to believe it accomplishable. "Even we (economists) dared not think of it in our study."
Twenty years on, Jiang Zemin's report to the 16th Party congress puts forward yet another goal, that of building a well-off society in an all-round way by the year 2020, when the country's GDP is expected to exceed a whopping 35 trillion yuan (US$ 4.24 trillion), quadruple the 2000 figure.
While Hu deems the grand goal possible, Qian is more ready to accept it. "It can very well be achieved, with a margin left even,if efforts are put into it," says Qian, now Party secretary for Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture in west China's Xingjiang.
Given the guidance from Deng Xiaoping Theory and Jiang Zemin's important thought of Three Representatives, and experience accumulated from, and the foundation laid by, economic development in the last 20 years, as well as a socialist market economy that tallies with Chinese conditions, he said he is full of confidence that the objective can be accomplished, particularly when the period for the objective's accomplishment offers important strategic opportunities.
According to an analysis from Hu Angang, director of the Center for Chinese Studies, Tsinghua University, the fairly high rate of domestic savings in China will accordingly bring about a high rate of domestic investment. In addition, a rise in the average education level in the last 10 years and improved education quality in years to come, as well as a more vigorous state-owned economy and improved non-public economies, will join forces with market-oriented reforms to propel the growth of the Chinese economy.
This is confirmed by Dai Xianglong, governor of China's central bank -- the People's Bank of China.
He says, the country's high savings rate which puts it ahead of other countries in the world is a guarantee for sufficient credit capital. The central bank will apply various monetary policies to increase monetary supply.
The governor predicts that the future rise in monetary supply in China will exceed by a fairly big margin growth of the economy and commodity prices put together.
"China is capable of raising funds from diverse channels to sustain the building of a well-off society in an all-round way," he says.
Delegate Li Xueyong, vice minister of science and technology, says, since China's reform and opening up in 1978, scientific and technological input has increased steadily with an improved operation mechanism under the guidance of "rejuvenating the country with science and education". Science and technology, dubbed "the primary productive force", have developed fast.
These and the integration of scientific progresses with the economy has laid a foundation for building a well-off society, he says.
Party delegates from grass-root levels share the view that the "quadruple" objective is a practical target proposed in the light of the country's current economic strength and a predictable rate of growth.
Delegate Pi Qiansheng, director of the administrative committee of Binhai New Area in Tianjin, says confidently, "The goal is entirely achievable."
Working out the economic growth rate for the coming 20 years, Hu Angan concludes that it takes a yearly growth rate of 7.2 percent to meet the goal. The growth rate for the first tens years might be higher, at seven to eight percent, whereas that for the second decade will be kept at six to seven percent.
In the past 13 years, China's annual GDP growth averaged 9.3 percent, Zeng Peiyan, minister in charge of the State Development Planning Commission, said Sunday at a press conference. He predicts that growth rate for this year will be around eight percent.
Certainly it won't be all plain-sailing.
Based on the present rate which is already fairly high, it is quite difficult to maintain a still higher growth rate. Some delegates also cite unbalanced economic development in the vast country as a major difficulty to surmount.
(Xinhua News Agency November 11, 2002)
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