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US public support for President George W. Bush's Iraq policy has nosedived in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, but this seems unlikely to force the administration to change tack, political analysts said on Wednesday. Reuters reported.
"Katrina has changed many things but I don't think it will change Iraq policy. There is almost no elasticity in that policy," said Danielle Pletka of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, an acknowledged supporter both of Bush and his Iraq policy.
Political scientist Cal Jillson of Southern Methodist University agreed. "There's no way back for Bush on Iraq. He can't run away from that policy. He has to secure something he can plausibly point to as success."
Public support for the president on Iraq had been gradually eroding in the past year as the US military death toll mounted toward 2,000 and little progress was made in stopping a bloody insurgency that began soon after the 2003 invasion.
But backing for his policy, that US troops would stay until Iraqis can establish a government and army that can govern and defend itself, has dropped dramatically since Katrina devastated Louisiana and Mississippi.
A Gallup poll published on Monday found 66 percent of respondents favored the immediate withdrawal of some or all of the US troops in Iraq, a 10 percentage point jump in two weeks.
Bush's personal approval on Iraq fell from 40 percent to 32 percent in the same period. In a CBS/New York Times poll the previous week, 75 percent said Bush had no clear plan for bringing US troops home.
Republicans in Congress, who know they face difficult mid-term elections in November 2006, are becoming increasingly concerned about their prospects.
"The mood up here among Republicans is very very sour," said one senior staffer who did not want to be named.
For many Americans, the connection between Katrina and Iraq comes down to one word -- money.
"Americans want to attend to the needs of people at home before we take care of people overseas," said Steven Wayne, a political scientist at Georgetown University. "But this president rarely if ever goes back on his own decisions and his legacy is largely connected to Iraq."
New context
Said Jillson, "People know we're running huge deficits and they know the costs have just rocketed upward. Many Americans are now looking at the Iraq situation in that context."
Congress has already approved US$62.3 billion for recovery and reconstruction after Katrina and the eventual cost could reach US$200 billion or more.
The Iraq war and occupation have cost over US$200 billion so far. The United States is spending US$5.6 billion a month there, or almost US$186 million a day.
Some Republicans, like Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel (news, bio, voting record), had been arguing even before the hurricane hit that the current Iraq policy was unsustainable.
"We are seen as occupiers, we are targets. We have got to get out. I don't think we can sustain our current policy, nor do I think we should," he said in an interview last month.
More and more Republicans may break with the president in coming months if US casualties continue to mount in Iraq and the country seems no nearer to stability.
But the party as a whole had little choice other than to stick with Bush, said political scientist David Birdsell of Baruch College in New York City.
"They don't have anywhere to go. If they should go in a different direction, then which direction?" he said.
Democrats, who up to now have been reluctant to criticize the Iraq policy for fear of seeming unpatriotic, may also feel more able to do so.
"So far, the Democrats have been cowardly and unwilling to speak out. They need to do so if they want to reap the political benefits of Bush's unpopularity," said Phyllis Bennis of the Institute for Policy Studies, a liberal think-tank which opposed the Iraq invasion and occupation.
(Chinadaily.com via agencies September 22, 2005)
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