"The weak increase in the number of students applying to take the entrance examination for graduate schools this year suggests a turning point, indicating that students will be less interested in graduate studies in the future," said a story appearing on influential websites like www.xinhuanet.com.cn after the examination period ended on January 21.

 

The entrance examination for graduate schools usually takes place in January, just before Spring Festival.

 

Though the absolute number of students signing up to take the examination is increasing, the rate of increase dropped precipitously this year compared with last year, according to data provided by the Ministry of Education,

 

This year, 1,282,000 people registered to take the exam, only 7,000 more than last year, representing an increase of only 0.5 percent.

 

In the years following the reinstatement of graduate applications in 1981, the number of students applying for the exam skyrocketed. Last year 1,275,000 students signed up for the entrance examination, 100,000 more than in 2005, representing a year-on-year increase of 9 percent.

 

"This year's slight increase shows that students are becoming more realistic in thinking about whether to take the entrance examination or not," said Tian Zhihui, vice-dean of the Graduate School of Communication University of China.

 

As potential applicants have noted, it takes time and energy to prepare for the examination.

 

"It usually takes six or eight months or even as long as a year and a half to prepare for the exam," said Chen Jiajie, a graduate from Beijing.

 

The potential financial burden represented by the examination is another factor students have to consider.

 

"A student has to spend 4,000 yuan (about US$500) on average preparing for the examination buying books and materials, renting rooms and attending courses," said Chen.

 

During this period, the students usually do not work, which only adds to the burden. 

 

"But maybe the main reason for this phenomenon (the declining growth rate) is that students are somewhat disillusioned because they have seen post-graduate degree holders losing their competitive edge in the job market in recent years," said Tian.

 

Statistics provided by the National Bureau of Statistics show that 162,000 students graduated with master's degrees in 2005, compared with 47,000 in 1998. And there were 787,300 postgraduate students in schools in 2005, compared with 154,000 in 1998.

 

Because of the boom in master's graduates, many have found it difficult to find the kind of job they would had expected after investing so much time, energy and money in getting their degrees. The situation looks even worse for those without any work experience.

 

The situation has raised major concerns about the future of graduate education in China.

 

"This suggests that people have begun valuing graduate education less, which is very dangerous for its future," said Wang Hongmei, vice-dean of China University of Mining and Technology's School of Law and Humanities.

 

"But with the ever-increasing number of graduate students and the comparatively limited number of tutors, students now receive less and less attention from their tutors."

 

However, the decline may look more dramatic than it really is.

 

"It is still early to say whether the number of students applying for graduate studies will drop dramatically in the near future because we have to take many factors into consideration like the number of students fresh from college," said Liu Shouxun, vice-dean of the Graduate School of Communication University of China.

 

"Senior undergraduates generally represent about 56 percent of the total number of people taking the test each year," said Liu.

 

Since the overall number of undergraduates has increased by 50,000 to 60,000 every year in recent years, the general trend will not change dramatically.

 

And the actual number of people signing up to take the test could be higher. Some graduates from last year who failed on their first attempt at the examination took it again this year. Rather than entering the job market, many of these students spent the year preparing to re-take the exam.

 

Chen Jiajie was one of them.

 

"Though people say a diploma does not necessarily lead to a good job, I still think I will have a better chance to find a good job if I am a graduate student," she said. "On the other hand, I have the chance to enter a more famous university by passing the entrance examination."

 

(China Daily February 2, 2007)