Counting down the days to the Beijing Olympic Games, people are showing little sign of losing their appetite for property in China. Although the pace in several booming cities in China eased somewhat in the last quarter, nationwide prices have risen more than 10 percent since January. Shenzhen residential property, for example, strikes a chord with a year-on-year increase of 28 percent in the first quarter of this year. Where should Hong Kong investors look to secure one bright spot to pour their savings on?
Beijing, being the host city, understandably has accounted for a construction frenzy surrounding the Olympic Games. At least twelve sports centers, a new cross-city underground railway, a host of office towers, a massive airport terminal, and a colossal French-designed egg-shaped theatre in the city center and related infrastructure has costed the capital nearly US$40 billion.
Officials estimate that building works related to the Games have been contributing more than twenty percent to Beijing's annual growth since 2003. Therefore, special attention has been drawn to Beijing's property market. In January Beijing's mayor, Wang Qishan, announced plans to boost the construction of affordable housing, which naturally would sustain the growth momentum of the construction activities.
During the first quarter, Beijing recorded an 8.7 percent jump in housing prices, compared to the same period last year. This, while impressive to some, pales in comparison to Shanghai and Shenzhen, where average prices rose 15 percent. One reason why Beijing residential prices witnessed relatively moderate increases was the sharp rise in new supply which jumped 9.7 percent year on year, taking gross residential floor area of new supply in the city to 3.6 million square meters. The ample supply tampered price rises.
Therefore, average capital value for Beijing's luxury properties is reasonably valued, at US$1,979 per square meter, registering a quarter-on-quarter rise of 3 percent and year-on-year increase of 8.7 percent .
Monthly rentals for Beijing's luxury properties rose a mere 1 percent in the first three months of the year, compared to the same period last year to US$19.5 per square meter.
As for Shanghai, the city had a total new supply of residential gross floor area of 32.7 million square meters as at December 2006, an increase of 16.1 percent from 2005. During the first three months of the year, the residential transaction volume in the city's primary market dropped by 14.3 percent to 41,067 deals from 47,952 deals transacted in the fourth quarter of last year.
Transactions slowed in the first quarter in part due to the Chinese New Year holiday season. In Shanghai, 4.5 million square meters of residential space was taken up during the first quarter, versus 5.5 million square meters during the last quarter of 2006. Luxury residential properties in Shanghai were priced at US$3,419 per square meter in the first quarter of 2007, a 5 percent surge from the same period last year, reflecting robust demand in the sector.
Monthly rentals for Shanghai luxury residential properties rose 2.7 percent quarter-on-quarter or 8 percent year-on-year to US$26.5 per square meter during the first quarter. Foreign investment has continued to fuel Shanghai's property market, which is bolstered by high level of real estate developments and acquisitions.
More foreign companies have set up offices in Shanghai which has further boosted demand for accommodation required for expatriates stationed in the city. The capital values and monthly rentals of luxury properties are expected to increase by 10 percent and 5 percent respectively this year.
During the first quarter, total real estate investment declined by 16.2 percent year-on-year to 8.6 billion yuan in Shanghai. The slowdown in real estate investment was attributed to the impact of administrative measures taken to curb the sizzling property market.
Driven by the strong economic performance and investment sentiment, residential properties in Shenzhen achieved higher capital values in the first three months of the year. Average capital values for luxury properties stood at US$1,800 per square meter in the first quarter, marking a quarter-on-quarter gain of 6 percent and year-on-year increase of 28 percent.
The monthly rentals for Shenzhen's luxury residential properties have slightly increased by 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter or 1.5 percent year-on-year to US$13.5 per square meter. Both capital values and monthly rentals will continue to grow this year rising 15 percent and 2 percent respectively.
So, it can be demonstrated the upcoming Olympic Games have been a strong catalyst for growth of China property market. That, in turn, has prompted authorities to fashion administrative measures for the capital to regulate runaway growth. So, while China's housing is still hot, Beijing's property sector market has cooled - relatively. Housing prices in the city have been checked, delivering more recent investment opportunities to secure better values than in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
(China.org.cn August 3, 2007)
