Taiwan "Administrative Yuan" released the report of "assessment on the impact of direct, cross-strait transport" on August 15. Centered on the "one country on each side theory" and coordinated with Chen Shui-bian's "preparation, consultation and realization" "three-stages theory on direct transport", this report has actually been reduced to a tool for Chen Shui-bian to obstruct direct, cross-strait air and shipping service, alleviate pressure from inside and outside the island and fish for votes in his election campaign. Owing to Chen Shui-bian's lack of sincerity, it is impossible to realize "direct cross-strait transport" within a short term.
The "report", which exaggerates impact and vilifies direct transport and runs as long as over 20,000 characters, is divided into chapters and sections, including "Preface", "The Relations between Three Links and Direct Transport", "Economic Influence Evaluation", "Security Evaluation", "Technology Assessment", "Key Issues and Overall Cost That Must Be Taken into Consideration", "Proper Direction and Work Preparation" and "Concluding Remarks".
Except for a brief description of the advantage of "direct transport" to some of the island's industries and its contribution to "uplifting Taiwan's shipping status and the economic area's strategic standing", most chapters and sections covering vast space of the "report" repeatedly play up and emphasize the impact exerted by direct transport to the island's political, economic, social and security aspects, such as impacting the island's industries, speeding up the loss of talents, the rise in unemployment rate, the outflow of capital and the decline of realty price, especially its use of a large batch of alarmist words to deliberately distort direct transport, alleging that direct transport is "conducive to the CPC's united front work with Taiwan", "unfavorable to Taiwan's international publicity", "the tendency to blur the awareness of enemy and ourselves", "the substantial increase in national defense cost", "the extremely high price of political cost", "the drastic increase in social security cost", and "the increasing severity of the issue concerning economic security", etc. What's worthy of notice is that the section on "security assessment of direct transport" in Chapter 3 alleges that direct air and shipping service "facilitates infiltration and air raid by CPC's scheduled flights and merchant ships and affects air and coastal defense as well as the maintenance of ground security", etc. The section on the "principle for consultation on pushing forward direct air and shipping service" claims that "state sovereignty admits of no concession", "not falling into CPC's united front work on the internal affairs of one China or one country" and "consultation should be fully guided by the government". The "Concluding Remarks" of the report emphasizes that "direct air and shipping service must not be conducted for the sake of direct air and shipping service in a wishful thinking way", "instead, direct air and shipping service must be realized with dignity, security and a desired prospect on the premise of safeguarding sovereignty integrity, ensuring security and benefiting Taiwan's economic development".
Wishful Thinking, Killing Three Birds with One Stone
Chen Shui-bian totally lacks sincerity with regard to direct air and shipping service, the poll conducted by the United Daily shows that 67 percent of the people surveyed disbelieve Chen Shui-bian's promise that direct air and shipping service would be fulfilled by the end of next year. Then, why does Chen Shui-bian pretentiously say that he would "spur" direct air and shipping service? The composition of voters on the island basically retains the pattern of being "bluing outnumbering greening", the degree of popular support for the "pair of Lien Chan and Sung Chu-yu" continues to be in the lead. If Chen Shui-bian wants to be successfully re-elected by over 50 percent votes, he must get the support from around 20 percent of the intermediate voters aside from trying hard to consolidate about 30 percent "votes from Taiwan independence diehards".
During the 2000 election, Chen Shui-bian explicitly promised that he would "boost the three links" (of mail, trade and transport), but so far he has failed to cash the election check, arousing the strong discontent of the industrialist and business circles. At present, direct air and shipping service is looked upon as "a 'golden key' to revitalizing the island's economy", 55 percent of the public advocate that the Taiwan authorities should unconditionally open direct cross-strait air and shipping service, direct transport is doubtlessly a noticeable, important topic affecting next year's election and is naturally "an effective electoral weapon" the bluing force uses to strike Chen Shui-bian.
Under such circumstances, Chen Shui-bian, who gains no official achievement and has no card to play, lumps together the two contradictory policies on direct transport and the "one country on each side" theory, transforms the difference between bluing and greening from "whether direct transport is necessary" into "under what stance is direct transport conducted", this is aimed at creating Chen Shui-bian's political image of "defending sovereignty" and "safeguarding security", and consolidating "votes from Taiwan independence diehards", secondly, it wants to give an explanation to Taiwan's business people, the industrial and commercial circles as well as the intermediate voters who are longing for direct transport, defuse the strong pressure put by various circles in the island who are demanding direct transport, and avoid sustaining beating on the topic of direct transport; most insidious of all is that though he is well aware that "state-to-state direct transport" is unacceptable to the mainland, Chen Shui-bian insists on going his own way, his smug calculation is that he wants to shift the responsibility for the failure in conducting consultation on direct, cross-strait transport entirely onto the mainland and find an excuse for the failure of direct cross-strait transport.
Of course, the direct transport play is also staged partly for the Americans to see. Chen's "referendum" stand undoubtedly affects US-Taiwan relations, especially affects "Uncle Sam's" attitude toward re-election of Chen Shui-bian. On the other hand, American industrial and commercial circles investing in Taiwan demand Taiwan authorities to open direct cross-strait transport, more than 200 US businesses have pulled their investments out of Taiwan for failure of direct, cross-strait transport. Given this situation, the top level of Taiwan authorities believes that offering a "direct transport" dinner before election in Taiwan next year and US presidential election can both pose a gesture of relaxing cross-strait relations in the face of the United States, mitigate US discontent with Taiwan's referendum, and stabilize US business people's investments in Taiwan, the ultimate aim, of course, is to strive for support to be extended by various American social circles to Chen Shui-bian's re-election.
Layer After Layer of Yokes Make Direct Transport Difficult
Superficially, Chen Shui-bian's "three-phased theory on direct transport" seems that he would "promote direct cross-strait transport", but a careful analysis of the "direct transport assessment report" makes it easy to discover that Taiwan authorities actually lack sincerity, for they strap one layer of shackles after another on direct transport and obstruct direct cross-strait transport in a disguised manner.
First of all, the political prerequisite of "one country on each side" makes direct, cross-strait transport simply impossible. Chen Shui-bian openly emphasizes that "one country on each side vs one China" be taken as the main axle for next year's election campaign, the "direct transport report" uses "one country on each side" as the framework, emphasizes the "government's leading role", insists on that "sovereignty allows of no concession", and positions direct cross-strait transport as "international routes". This is poles apart from the mainland's proposition on "people-to-people consultation, cross-strait routes", being tantamount to practically damaging the atmosphere for resumption of cross-strait talks and consultation on "three links". According to the island's public opinion, Taiwan authorities' direct transport stand is "logically contradictory", is "binding direct transport in one check with 'one country on each side', thus doubtlessly reducing direct transport to a political funeral object". Non-party affiliated "Member of Legislative Yuan" Chen Wen-chien criticized Chen Shui-bian's way of shouting about "one country on each side", while crying for "cross-strait three links" which is just like "eating sweetmeats ceaselessly while uttering cries for a reduction of weight, this is utterly a means for indulging in propaganda and is sheer nonsense".
Secondly, the many restrictions and a string of attached conditions have created difficulties in consultation between the two sides and direct cross-strait transport. Taiwan authorities stress that the "objective conditions and ripe time for direct transport" depend on "whether or not consensus has been established, whether supporting measures are complete and whether cross-strait relations can be improved". Leaving aside Chen Shui-bian's play with the topic on "reunification or independence" that has created more difficulties for improvement of cross-strait relations, it is very hard to establish consensus within the Democratic Progress Party (DPP) alone. The "national defense ministry" proposes the adoption of a "first south, then north and then middle" gradual method for direct transport, "airplanes should not fly across the Taiwan Straits", no new air routes are to be added, and there should be fixed point, line and time for shipping service". Obviously, this is a "technical strangulation" under the pretext of "security", damaging the original design and efficiency of direct transport, and obstructing the island's industrial and shipping circles from plunging themselves into direct cross-strait transport. Public opinion analysts queried "with so many restrictions and a string of attached conditions, how can direct cross-strait transport be carried out?" Therefore, the "report" is essentially "a note on no direct, cross-strait transport". .
Thirdly, exaggerating the impact of direct transport on the island's political, economic and security fields obviously is an act of pouring cold water on direct, cross-strait transport. The "report" advertises "objective presentation of the advantages and disadvantages, and gains and losses of direct transport" to demonstrate Taiwan authorities' sincere and responsible attitude", but actually it sedulously exaggerates and plays up the various problems generated by direct transport and its impacts on the island. Taiwan authorities not only lack the wish and sincerity to boost direct transport, but also use alarmist talks to obstruct the efforts of people from all walks of life on the island to promote direct, cross-strait transport. The analytical articles in some Taiwan media hold that the "report's" presentation of various problems facing direct transport "causes people to tremble with fear". The fact that Taiwan authorities lack active decision-making will and practicable planning steps cannot but cause people to doubt the authorities' sincerity concerning opening direct transport.
It is not difficult to see that the "report" essentially implements Chen Shui-bian's "Taiwan independence" view as enshrined in the statement "one country on each side". Seeking "state-to-state direct transport and three links" indicates that the Chen Shui-bian authority simply doesn't want to push forward direct, cross-strait transport, it only wants to vigorously play the "direct transport card" in order to fish for votes. But Taiwan authorities' obstruction of direct, cross-strait transport can only further exacerbate the island's political and economic crises and further harm the islanders' vital interests, Chen Shui-bian will definitely face greater direct transport pressure from inside and outside the island.
(People's Daily August 22, 2003)
