Contrary to widespread concerns that the baby boomers of the 1960s and 1970s might themselves lurch into a baby boom of their own, the birthrate in major Chinese cities continues to fall as more and more couples opt to have children at a much later age.
In Tianjin, a port city close to Beijing and with a population of over 10 million, 74,600 babies were born in 2001, 24,000 fewer than the 1997 figure, according to the city's statistics bureau.
The latest national census, conducted in 2000, found children aged up to 14 years totalled 1.68 million in Tianjin, about 16.8 per cent of the city's population and down nearly 6 per cent from the 1.99 million reported in 1990.
Sources say the birthrate in Tianjin proper has dropped to 9 per thousand over the past decade, indicating that one out of 10 married women chooses not to have a child.
Fewer babies have been born in recent years as many young city dwellers delay both marriage and pregnancy, said a family planning official.
"Unlike their parents who used to get married at around 20, many young city dwellers nowadays remain single into their late 20s," said Liu Lina, an official with the Tianjin Municipal Family Planning Commission.
"And many couples wait until their 30s, even late 30s, to have a child, if they decide to have one at all," she added.
Incomplete figures show that in 2001, major hospitals in Tianjin saw some 4,000 pregnant women over the age of 35, an age group considered by doctors to be vulnerable and requiring special care before and during their deliveries.
A lower birthrate poses new challenges to small kindergartens and nurseries, some of whom fail to enrol enough children and are forced to merge with larger ones or close down.
In 2001, Tianjin had about 2,600 kindergartens and nurseries, a sharp decline on the 4,700 of 1995. Consequently the total number of people they employed also dropped from 37,000 to 19,000.
The low number of school-aged children in the city is very likely to impact on primary and secondary schools in the near future, insiders say.
Experts say the decreasing birthrate is not merely a result of the country's family planning policy, but also mirrors tremendous changes in people's way of thinking and living.
"With a sound pension scheme and other social welfare facilities, parents do not have to rely solely on their children after retirement," said Li Jianmin, a demographer with the Tianjin-based Nankai University.
"Besides, many young people, men as well as women, value career development more than household affairs. Some even think it is a burden to have a baby, given the financial pressure a child might bring," added Li.
Guo Hongmao, an economist with Nankai University, said restrained population growth can contribute to social and economic development by reducing consumption and increasing the per capita gross domestic product by relieving the pressure on education, employment, medical services, social security and the environment.
Only 0.71 per cent of the GDP increase in Tianjin was consumed by the newborn population between 1991 and 2001, down from the 5.76 per cent between 1980 and 1990, according to figures supplied by Guo.
(Xinhua News Agency November 11, 2002)
