Washington's Taiwan Policy: An Analysis

At a dinner last Tuesday held by the Asia Association, US ambassador to China Clark T. Randt, in his speech on US policy towards cross-Straits relations, said that Washington's policy remains unchanged.

He noted that the US policy is based on the three Sino-US joint communiqu?s and the Taiwan Relations Act, which indicates that while supporting the one-China policy, the US will continue to provide Taiwan with arms to ensure Taiwan's defence capabilities.

Randt's remarks could be regarded as a move to comfort Taiwan after Paul Wolfowits, US deputy secretary of defence, used the expression of "opposing Taiwan Independence" at a press conference on May 29. Wolfowits is the first senior official in the US Government to use the word "oppose" instead of "not support" in 30 years.

Wolfowits is known as a key US official in the Bush Administration who is friendly to Taiwan. Hence, his remarks were construed by some observers as a subtle change in Washington's attitude toward Taiwan since the September 11 event. However, in addition to that statement, he also reiterated that the United States "firmly opposes" any attempt to decide Taiwan's future by non-peaceful means.

Neither Wolfowits, nor Randt, had gone beyond Washington's traditional strategic thinking regarding the Taiwan question.

Neither a united China, nor a war across the Taiwan Straits, consists with the United States' perception of its own interests.

According to American strategists, a unified China has the potential to challenge US strategic advantages in East Asia. Any military conflict across the Taiwan Straits would possibly involve the United States, which is definitely not what Washington wants.

However, no matter how Washington phrases its rhetoric, the deep-rooted contradiction in its current policies toward the Taiwan question remains.

In the Chinese mainland-Taiwan-US triangle, Taiwan under the current leadership wants to change the status quo. In particular, since Chen Shui-bian took office, the separatists in Taiwan have accelerated their stride of separation in the form of "gradual independence." The Chinese mainland has justifiably taken such endeavors as provocative.

The United States' attempts to maintain balance between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits by arming Taiwan, sales of advanced weaponry to Taiwan in particular, have naturally been read as gestures of connivance to separatist acts on the island.

According to the Taiwan-based China Times, a senior official with Taiwan's "Foreign Ministry," upon confirming the US decision to sell Apache armed helicopters to Taiwan, boasted that Taiwan's comprehensive military strength is now more powerful than any other surrounding neighbour. Apache helicopters, with a max range of over 600 kilometers and with a combat radius of over 200, are more offensive than defensive.

In this sense, Washington seems to be in a dilemma as any misjudgment of the situation by the separatists, whose desire for independence is very likely to be reinforced in this way, could lead to war across the Straits.

As interdependence grows between China and the United States in terms of both economy and security, a prosperous and stable China is in line with Washington's interests.

Taiwan's reunification with the mainland is an inevitable trend. Since the United States supports the one-China principle, which is also in its own interests, it should reconsider its arms sales to Taiwan.

(China Daily June 17, 2002)