A senior Indian official said Sunday that a "promising process" had begun to diminish the military crisis with Pakistan, and a top State Department official stated that "tensions are down measurably."
The Indian official credited Pakistan's with ordering a halt to the infiltration of Islamic militants into Indian Kashmir, and acknowledged that these orders are being carried out on the ground. That begins to fulfill the most important condition India had set for stepping back from the brink of war.
In an official statement, the Indian government welcomed a promise by Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, to permanently end infiltration across the Line of Control into the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. India's external affairs minister, Jaswant Singh, told Secretary of State Colin L. Powell by phone Sunday that the pledge was a "step forward and in the right direction."
In the statement, India said that after it had evaluated implementation of the pledge, it would "respond appropriately and positively."
The State Department official, Richard L. Armitage, who visited Pakistan and India this week, said Sunday that tensions between the nuclear-armed nations were being reduced. He made the remark in Estonia, where he traveled to meet Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and brief him on the talks.
Mr. Armitage, the deputy secretary of state, told reporters that "when you have close to a million men glaring, shouting and occasionally shooting across a territory that is a matter of some dispute, then I think you couldn't say the crisis is over." But he said that India might return some diplomats to Pakistan and might make "military gestures" to reflect the easing of tensions.
The Indian official, who spoke before Mr. Armitage made his remarks, said that in the next few days - perhaps by the time Mr. Rumsfeld arrives here next week - India will have considered steps to reduce the tension, possibly by reversing diplomatic sanctions imposed on Pakistan in December or even ratcheting down India's extensive military buildup.
Mr. Armitage said it was possible that India might redeploy some of its forces, at least in symbolic numbers at first. He said Pakistan had also pledged to take steps in coming days specifically designed to ease the crisis and rebuild trust.
India is clearly pleased with the assurances that General Musharraf gave Mr. Armitage on Thursday. General Musharraf pledged that Pakistan would permanently stop infiltration and, by extension, his country's support for the insurgency that has bled India by a thousand cuts for more than a decade.
Mr. Armitage said his negotiations with India and Pakistan included discussions of creating a force to monitor the Line of Control in Kashmir, although "absolutely no determinations" were made on establishing such a mission. Consensus was still elusive, he said, on whether the patrols would be solely Indian and Pakistani, as India desires, or whether foreign militaries would participate, as Pakistan would prefer.
Mr. Armitage also said there had been discussions about sharing American satellite surveillance with both sides in an effort to avoid miscalculation and war. But on that issue, as well, there still has not been a decision, he said.
Mr. Armitage said that General Musharraf "was quite categorical about the fact that the activities across the Line of Control would be stopped permanently." Mr. Armitage added that, "He's quite keen, General Musharraf, on entering into a dialogue on the whole question of Kashmir." The Indian government, he said, "will be watching to see if the actions follow the words."
The Americans have been catapulted into the role of mediating the conflict between India and Pakistan - an extraordinary development given India's longstanding opposition to any meddling by other countries in its relations with Pakistan.
Until Sunday, no Indian official had acknowledged that General Musharraf was carrying through on his promise to stop militants from sneaking into Indian Kashmir or that infiltration levels are down significantly, as the State Department spokesman, Richard A. Boucher, said on Friday.
But the Indian official said Sunday that India had, like the United States, reached "about the same assessment" that infiltration is down substantially. "We are finding that they have given the orders, and the orders are being implemented," he said.
He added, though, that that infiltration had not stopped completely, but noted that orders given at the top of a military command structure might not be perfectly carried out on the ground. "When you go down the line in a hierarchy, different things happen," he said.
The official also disclosed that Mr. Armitage told India's senior leaders that General Musharraf had indicated that he intended eventually to dismantle dozens of camps where thousands of militants have been trained to join the Islamic holy war against India in Kashmir and are now waiting for orders. "The impression I got from Armitage is that Musharraf has some difficulty in this regard, that yes, he'll do it, but not immediately," he said.
The official laid out the outlines of a diplomatic process of de-escalation that will be discussed in the coming days. It seems likely that there are serious differences over how to proceed within the government and the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party that leads the coalition.
A senior Home Ministry official said on Friday night that the powerful home minister, Lal Krishna Advani, who has been the most hawkish member of the cabinet, opposed any sequenced process and believed that Pakistan must stop infiltration, tear down the camps and stop the violence inside Kashmir before India reciprocates.
But the senior official interviewed Sunday said that Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee favored such a calibrated process. It is Mr. Vajpayee who will have the final say.
The starting point of the process is clearly General Musharraf's order to stop the infiltration. If India now responds with steps to reduce tensions, the next move would be the general's. India expects him next to take action to tear down the camps and stop Pakistan's financing of the anti-India jihad.
"We have now to decide in the next few days whether infiltration has stopped or is down to a minimum and whether we could take some - and I emphasize some - steps towards the de-escalation of tensions," the Indian official said Sunday.
During his public comments on Friday here in New Delhi, Mr. Armitage repeatedly made reference to General Musharraf's desire to avoid war "consistent with the honor and dignity of the nation of Pakistan."
So far, Indian officials have given the general no ability to make a face-saving claim that India offered concessions in exchange for the steps he has taken to crack down on Islamic extremism. But this official Sunday seemed willing to give General Musharraf a little help - and referred to a request from Mr. Armitage.
"What he said was that some steps by us would be helpful in persuading Musharraf to travel down the road farther," the official said. "Pakistanis talked to Richard about the honor and dignity of Pakistan. I presume if we take some steps that would ensure the honor and dignity, maybe it would be helpful."
Asked directly if the risk of war had receded, the official indicated that it had but said he still worried that another terrorist attack could damage the progress made so far.
"In this circumstance, if a major incident were to take place it would create a situation where the government would be under tremendous pressure," he said, adding that Mr. Advani would likely be among those demanding swift retaliation.
But the official said India would first try to determine who had carried out the attack and acknowledged that the Islamic irregulars already in Kashmir had a strong incentive to sabotage the peace process that has now begun.
This official, who always declines to be named, has been a sober, even grim, figure through the eight months of crisis that began with an Oct. 1 attack on the state legislative assembly of Jammu and Kashmir, worsened with a Dec. 13 attack on Parliament and reached new heights with a May 14 assault on the wives and children of soldiers.
India blamed Pakistan-backed militant groups for the attacks and after the December assault mounted a military buildup that continues, with a million Indian and Pakistani troops along their shared border.
Sunday the official seemed relieved, even lighthearted. Asked if he felt vindicated by the West's blunt support for India in this crisis, he burst out laughing. "Yes, but it took a lot of persuasion," he said. "I think they found we were serious."
(China Daily June 10, 2002)
