Palestine-Israel violence conflicts are experiencing the most rigorous tests over the past 18 months; the political life of Yasser Arafat is again in imminent danger; the international community demands Israel to put an immediate end to its aggressive acts and pull out its troops right away; the popular feeling of Arab countries is running high, their anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment has come to an unprecedented high. What's the matter with Israel? And what's Sharon's real intention?
Palestine-Israel violent conflicts are experiencing the most extreme forms over the past 18 months. The political life of Yasser Arafat is again in imminent danger. The international community demands Israel put an immediate end to its aggressive acts and pull its troops out. The popular feeling in Arab countries is running high. Their anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment has reached an unprecedented high. But Ariel Sharon seems to conduct military moves of the grandest scale against Palestine according to a routine, which it has been carrying out over the past year.
What's the matter with Israel? And what's Sharon's real belief? As a matter of fact, it is not difficult to find the answer if we look back to the situation before Israeli Prime Minister Sharon's administration took over the past year and more.
The thorough failure of the Palestine-Israel Camp David talks and the Palestinian re-establishment of armed struggle as one of its means of struggle at that time, as well as Israel's decision during the general election to discard Ehud Barak and choose Sharon as the Prime Minister - all these determined that the Sharon administration's policies toward Arab countries and Palestine would definitely be harsh. There was already a voice of opposition at that time in the Arab countries. As expected, although Sharon waved olive branches from the time to time after taking office, expressed his willingness to thoroughly solve disputes with Palestine and agreed on the founding of a Palestine state, he explicitly demanded that Palestine absolutely stop all anti-Israel actions, and accept the existence of Israel. Furthermore, his basic line was to draw back from the Oslo Agreement and demand that Palestine accept a Sharon-ratified Palestine state under extremely harsh conditions. It can be said that what Sharon has done since he came to power aimed to achieve this objective. These aims, of course, are unrealistic and are unacceptable to Palestine and the Arab side.
With regard to the Arab world, because of the dissenting opinions between the hard-liners and the moderates, one faction advocates solving problems with Israel by peaceful means, the other faction supports the fighting against Israel by Palestinian organizations through extreme actions. These two kinds of opinions and attitudes have coexisted for a long time and it is hard to reconcile them. Qatar Peninsula TV Station summed up the Saudi formula, or said the "Arab Proposal", adopted at the Arab Summit Conference concluded on the afternoon of 28 March, as consisting of the following points: calling on Israel to confirm the choice of peace and to agree to the establishment of a Palestine state with Jerusalem as its capital; calling Israel to withdraw from all the Arab territory it occupied during the 1967 war, including the Golan Heights and the southern regions of Lebanon; getting in return the normalization of relationship on this basis; solving the Palestinian refugee problem in a fair way; rejecting all forms of settlements on the Arab territory. This proposal with a framework containing only several principles obviously put Israel in utter despair about Saudi Prince Abdullah's "package solution" formula. It not only could not be accepted, it made it possible for Sharon to bear the bad reputation of "rejecting Arab's peace proposal". Thus Israel decided to simply evade this proposal, and instead it launched military actions of an unprecedented scale on 29 March under the pretext of attacking the "increasingly intensified Palestinian terrorism".
Israel went into immediate action at the time when some Arab heads of state attending the Arab Summit had not yet returned home. Obviously this was a well-prepared action. People should remember that the "struggle" had been fought to the last moment over the question whether Arafat could personally attend the Arab League Summit and whether Palestine and Israel would sign the cease-fire agreement. Special Envoy General Anthony C. Zinni of the United States revised his cease-fire agreement, Israel indicated conditional acceptance, while Arafat still refused to sign. Of course, it is impossible for us to know what the revised cease-fire agreement is like. However, if Israel cannot succeed in the "cease-fire negotiation", we must conclude that a cease-fire agreement is hopeless. There does exist the threat of war as another method chosen for solving the problem. It was already too late when Arafat learned that Israel really wanted to "speak" by means of tanks and hurriedly declared an "immediate, unconditional acceptance of the cease-fire agreement".
It is crystal clear that although the Palestine-Israel sides and the Arab-Israel sides have all conditionally expressed their stands on agreeing to the "right of Palestine to establish a state" and the "right of Israel to exist", actually the conditions for conciliation presented by both sides are unrealistic. The differences are large to such an extent that the other side simply cannot accept. At the same time, both sides are each accusing the other side, it is apparent that they lack sufficient "sincerity". Here lies the fundamental reason why violence conflicts between Palestine and Israel simply cannot stop and peace talk cannot start after so long a time. Under the macro international anti-terrorist situation, Israel categorically decided to make Palestinian extremist organization (directed essentially against Arafat) the target of attack, conducting "anti-terror" attacks against its violence actions. Obviously it wants to cloak its military suppression with "a good reason for waging a war".
According to Sharon's logic, in order to realize cease-fire with Palestine, he had made many "concessions" as he had once pulled out his troops, tolerated the suicidal raids launched by extremists against Israeli civilians, and even gave up the "absolute tranquillity period" which he had persisted should be for seven days. However, Arafat, instead of stopping domestic terrorist actions, had supported them behind the scene. Hence, casting away and attacking Arafat and the Arafat-headed Palestine National Authority (PNA) became the inevitable choice of the Sharon administration.
It is beyond doubt that Israel's military actions had the approval of the United States, that's why Washington has so far only stressed that Israel has the right to launch "self-defense". They even had the impudence to demand that Arafat to stop the terrorist activities. Then, what is Israel's aim in doing all this?
Judging from the fact that Israel has deployed reserve troops in Tel Aviv, it is determined to combat Palestinian extremist terrorist raids. While claiming that it had no intention to occupy the Palestine-controlled area, it decided to encircle Arafat's official residence and completely isolate him. And yet while it explicitly indicated that it would not harm the life of Arafat himself; it also indicated that its military actions would continue for several weeks and even several months no matter how strong international pressure is. Israel is flying in the face of the will of the people.
The current Israeli government is a coalition government and there is a great degree of freedom of speech in the country. Therefore, it is entirely imaginable that there are different voices at home regarding the military action, Foreign Minister Shimon Peres holds dissenting opinions. But Sharon obviously is a hard-liner who dares to act and bear responsibility, that's why he now takes everything upon himself.
It is said that Israel is resolute in "self-defence", and in protecting the "safety" of its citizens. Under the excuse of attacking Palestinian terrorists, it wanted to force Arafat to sign the cease-fire agreement. If Arafat refuses, it will "completely isolate" him, forbidding him to meet with official representatives of any country. Arafat is allowed to leave Palestine via Israel, but that means he only steps onto the path of no way home. Moreover, the possibility of Arafat being driven out of the west bank of the Jordan River after a period of time cannot be ruled out. While the Tel Aviv military attack on "PNA-led terrorist infrastructure facilities" is seen by Israel as the only way leading to peace. In Sharon's clear-cut words, that means Arafat has been ruled "out" in this game; he has been completely cast aside, so it "does not matter much" whether or not to carry out the "struggle against terrorism". Israel will realize cease-fire and negotiation with another Palestinian leader, whom Israel has cast its eyes on, but whose name it is presently not prepared to disclose, so as to achieve a Palestine-Israel peace. In a word, Sharon believes that Arafat's political life has finished. These are Sharon's real conclusions.
However, international opinion and even Israeli opinion have great doubt about whether Sharon's military action is practicable, or, in the final analysis, to what extent it is sure of success. Historical experience and lessons show it is impossible to overwhelm a nation. Moreover, it is usually the case that the heavier the suppression, the stronger the resistance. The current voice of the Islam and Arab world, the international community's condemnation of Israel, as well as the continuing violent terrorist activities in Palestine - all these obviously serve as evidence of difficulties for Sharon to achieve the aim he hopes for.
( April 6, 2002)
