Hopes of a breakthrough in Cyprus reunification talks have hit the same stubborn wall that has kept the island's ethnic Greeks and Turks apart for decades, making a June deadline for a deal increasingly unlikely.
In a process many see as the last ditch chance for any progress to heal the decades-old division, an all-too familiar picture of gloom is coming together to replace the initial euphoria when the talks started in January.
"We haven't seen any sign of a breakthrough yet which would make a framework settlement in June feasible," said an analyst familiar with the talks which started in a bid to meet a December deadline for a decision on European Union (EU) enlargement.
Cyprus has seven months at the most to sort its problem out and avoid seeing only the internationally recognized Greek side joining the EU in 2004. Such an event would bring the potential of renewed tension between EU member Greece and EU aspirant Turkey. It would also be the last thing countries like the United States would want for two NATO allies in a strategically important region.
The key difficulty in bridging views over Cyprus is that of the form reunification would take.
Greek Cypriots, who now represent the government of Cyprus and have no intention of seeing that sovereignty split down the middle, want a single federated state made up of two regions.
The Turkish Cypriots, who lost their position in a power-sharing administration in 1963, want a union of two states only loosely linked by a central administration.
"Its simple. If Denktash insists on sovereignty there will be no deal. This is the one thing Clerides is adamant on," said one Greek Cypriot official.
Sources say that President Glafcos Clerides, the Greek Cypriot leader, and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, have not even begun real negotiations despite meeting around 25 times since January.
Denktash told reporters after meeting Clerides on Wednesday that there had been difficulties with the talks, but that they could continue beyond June if necessary.
"There are difficulties. The difficulties are continuing," he said, "In the nine days ahead (before the next meeting) we have time to assess the meetings and discussions we have had and put together a list of issues we agree upon and disagree upon."
"We're going to continue patiently and with good intentions," he said, "It can go on beyond June."
There is also mounting speculation that EU aspirant Turkey, which holds considerable sway over Turkish Cypriot affairs, is holding out in the hope of getting a firmer commitment from Brussels on when it can start entry talks.
A senior European diplomat said EU governments were increasingly downbeat about the prospects of a Cyprus deal this year and were becoming resigned to the prospect of having to conclude accession negotiations with a divided Cyprus.
"It doesn't look like Denktash really wants a deal, and it doesn't look as if the Turks will force him into one in time," a diplomat said.
He said it seemed more likely that the EU would have to wrap up entry talks with the Nicosia government, leaving the door open to the Turkish Cypriots to enter the process during the 12 to 18-month ratification period before Cyprus joins the bloc.
"Then there'll be a lot of bluster from Turkey and perhaps once that has blown over, there may be another window of opportunity for a settlement before Cyprus actually joins," he said.
Ankara has said in the past that it could annex the northern territories of the island if Cyprus joins divided, fuelling the danger of a military confrontation between Turkey and Greece.
Both countries have seen relations improve dramatically over the years, but that goodwill has failed to filter down to their kin in Cyprus.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem, in Brussels earlier this week, described the Cyprus problem as "a litmus test" for Turkey's own troubled relations with the EU.
But he hinted that the EU might facilitate a solution for the island by granting Ankara itself an official date for launching accession negotiations. "If dates were given, there would be developments," he said.
(China Daily March 29, 2002)
