Afghanistan is close to a humanitarian disaster in which thousands are likely to die even if the United States calls an immediate halt to its bombing campaign, aid groups fear.
One month into the pounding of a country wracked by severe drought and two decades of war, little progress has been made to get essential food, medicines and warm clothing to the millions on the move.
Red tape, fear of US bombs hitting aid convoys and aid groups' fear of the Taliban militia are hampering humanitarian efforts.
Pakistan and other neighbouring countries are stopping refugees leaving, severely curtailing what relief groups can do.
After the looting of UN offices and attacks on aid workers, security is a major concern, although the Taliban's ambassador to Pakistan on Monday urged UN agencies to return to avoid a disaster.
"Even if the bombing stops now, even if assistance goes in now, it may be too late," UN High Commissioner for Refugees spokesman Yusuf Hassan said.
"Even the toughest, hardiest people can't overcome the odds now stacked against them."
Between six and eight million Afghans face food shortages. Disease and the imminent winter compound the severity.
Ahmed Waseem, from the British-based charity Islamic Relief, summed up the frustrations felt by aid groups who are being forced to sit on the sidelines.
"In the last month nothing substantial has happened," he said, referring to aiding refugees inside Afghanistan.
"I think Afghanistan is going to be a major disaster. It's not just the war. These people were already facing major problems after years of drought and civil conflict."
More than one million Afghans were officially classed as internally displaced even before the United States unleashed its military might.
"It's simple. The air strikes need to stop or you need a safe corridor to ferry in food," he said. "None of that is happening."
Ahmed Waseem added that he had seen "very many" cases of severe malnutrition among children making it into Pakistan, indicating that some parts of the country are reaching a famine situation.
"There are grave fears among aid agencies that very many people will die."
Hassan said the UNHCR was fully prepared to receive a large influx into Pakistan but the refugees were effectively trapped in Afghanistan.
"Relief assistance is positioned at the proposed exit points of refugees and sites are ready to accept them," he said.
"But we continue to face enormous difficulties and constraints in being able to meet the challenge. Our biggest problem is that the borders remain sealed."
More than 100,000 Afghans have entered Pakistan illegally in the past month but have disappeared into urban areas for fear of being deported and have received no help from aid workers.
President Pervez Musharraf has given the UNHCR a verbal guarantee that deportations will not happen but there is nothing in writing.
Inside Afghanistan, many refugees have fled from the cities since the bombing started, further complicating the coordination of assistance.
"There is a big concern that this is putting a lot of pressure on rural communities -- they are running out of food and water and medical problems will follow," said Hassan.
Those most in need are in the country's rugged north where access is expected to be cut off by snow within weeks.
The World Food Program is planning air drops to the more remote regions but insists the Taliban give assurances for the security of aircraft and aid workers before this happens.
"People are fleeing not just because of a lack of food but because they are terrified of conscription by the Taliban, because of persecution and because of the aerial bombardment," Hassan added.
"Currently we are not in a position to give them protection in Afghanistan and we can't give them protection in Pakistan because the borders are closed.
"It is incredibly frustrating. It is one of the most complex and difficult situations we (UNHCR) have faced in recent years.
"All we can do is continue to prepare new sites here on the ground, work with local authorities. The best we can do is to be ready," he said.
(China Daily November 6,2001)
