Analysts Predict China-Japan Trade War May End in November

The recent Sino-Japan trade war may come to an end within the next four months, analysts say.

According to an article in the July 27 China Economic Times, experts are predicting that China will lift its "temporary protective tariffs" on Japanese automobiles, mobile phones and air conditioners in November.

Beijing imposed a 100 percent special tariff on these products on June 21 after Japan slapped hefty import duties on Chinese green onions, mushrooms and rush plants.

Observers say China is likely to lift its tariffs on or after Nov. 8; that is when Japan's emergency import duties are scheduled to end. Also, Beijing will be eager to be a fair-trading partner in the run-up to entry into the World Trade Organization, expected early next year.

An official with the China Anti-Dumping and Anti-Subsidy Investigation Organization, who asked not to be identified, said he believed the protective tariffs would not be in place "for long," although he would not specify a timetable.

He did say, however, that even after this particular trade dispute comes to an end and China enters the WTO, this does not mean Beijing could not continue to take such "protective measures." In fact, he said, such protective measures are allowed under WTO rules.

According to the official, adopting emergency tariffs is one of three ways WTO members can protect themselves. It is the only method used to protect domestic manufacturers under a fair trading environment, he said.

However, the prerequisites for imposing such tariffs are stricter than that for anti-dumping measures. Under fair trading conditions, cuts in tariffs are likely to result in an absolute or comparative surge in imports and could cause serious harm to domestic manufacturers.

Under such circumstances, WTO members are allowed to protect domestic industries by limiting import volume and increasing import tariffs, in order to facilitate a domestic industrial structural adjustment.

The official said that he expects China to encounter more trade disputes after WTO entry, as they are quite common among trading partners, the story said.

(Chinadaily.com.cn 08/03/2001)