While the rest of the world is struggling through a global slowdown which many economists fear would turn into a worldwide recession, China's economy keeps chugging along with an impressive 7.6 percent year-on-year growth during the first three quarters of 2001.
China's gross domestic product hit 6.7 trillion yuan (US$807 billion) during the first nine months of the year, boosted by a flood of overseas investment and government spending, the National Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday.
Despite the good news, GDP growth still fell short of its 8.2 percent acceleration during the same period last year, hampered by slowing demand in the United States for Chinese goods.
"China's GDP is able to grow by 7.5 percent this year, with buoyant domestic demand as the major impetus for the growth," states the 2001 China Economic Analysis and Forecast Report issued by the bureau.
Economists say, short of an unexpected disaster, China's GDP will maintain a 7 to 8 percent growth next year, living up to Premier Zhu Rongji's target of 7 percent annual growth for the next five years.
"China's exports began to slow down in the first quarter owing to the soft global economy," said Yang Jianwen, deputy chief of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences' Economic Institute.
Yang warns that China's exports will be "inevitably affected" by the terrorist attacks on the United States and resulting military strikes in Afghanistan.
China's exports increased 7 percent to US$195 billion year on year during the first three quarters, a drop from the 33.1 percent increase during the same period last year. The country's trade surplus amounted to US$13.6 billion during the period, a decrease of US$5.6 billion from a year earlier.
"However, our growth mainly relies on domestic demand, which is on the upswing," Yang added.
One of the authors of the economic report, Liu Guoguang, a consultant for the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the government's fiscal policy has aided growth.
The central government began a proactive fiscal policy in 1998, and has issued more than 500 billion yuan in government bonds to spur investment in infrastructure projects.
Although some economists doubt the efficiency of government spending to stimulate the economy, they agree that GDP growth has been on a consistently upward path this year, reversing seven straight years of decline from its 1992 high of 14.2 percent.
The bureau's report includes several other pieces of good news about the economy, including:
Fixed-asset investment increased by 15.8 percent to 2.1 trillion yuan during the first nine months of 2001.
Government stimulus programs helped retail sales rise 10.1 percent to 2.7 trillion yuan during the first three quarters.
Consumer prices rose 1 percent year on year in the nine-month period.
The period also saw foreign direct investment jump 20.7 percent to US$32.2 billion.
China's industrial companies turned out 1.96 trillion yuan in value-added output from January to September, up 10.3 percent from a year earlier.
Government revenues during the period climbed 24.2 percent to 1.2 trillion yuan.
Li Xiaochao, a deputy director of comprehensive statistics, said government policies will seek to boost exports and to raise incomes of poorer households and rural residents.
(Eastday.com 10/17/2001)
