"We anticipate that millions of migrant workers will flock to urban areas to seek their fortune from July, despite many staying at home with a wait-and-see approach,'' said Xia Jizhi, president of China Labour Society.

Only 12 per cent, or 1.36 million, of those who returned to their home villages after SARS spread in urban areas have returned to cities over the past two weeks, said the State Family Planning and Population Commission yesterday.

A total of 9 million others, or 73 per cent of the total, reported they would stay at home for the time being, indicated the commission's latest survey.

But Xia said on Friday that this scenario is bound to change, as the flu-like epidemic comes increasingly under control in cities.

Urban residents are shrugging off worries and anxieties and beginning to shop with fervour again.

"Another force to drive them back to cities is that many farmers largely rely on their urban work to earn cash and support their family,'' said Xia.

Given that up to 70 per cent of the incomes of farmers in many provinces are derived from their work in cities, rural residents have seen a large dent placed in their earnings by SARS, said Han Jun, an expert with the State Council Development Research Centre.

Many farmers had entrusted their farmland to be tilled and crops harvested by their relatives or fellow villagers before they left for cities early this year, meaning they are now virtually at leisure, Xia said.

With regard to where migrant workers will choose to work after SARS has been fully contained, the State family planning commission's survey found that 84 per cent of those who had already returned to cities went back to where they fled from.

Mo Rong, deputy director of the Institute for Labour Studies under the Ministry of Labour and Social Security, said he believed most cities that had reported SARS cases will be safe to absorb rural labourers by July.

But farmers should not flock to Beijing, which has reported no new infection cases only recently.

A 20-day observation period is usually necessary to see if the infection will rebound in a city recording no new cases, according to medical experts.

Between late April and May alone, 8 million of the country's nearly 100 million itinerant workers returned to their home villages, according to Vice-Minister of Agriculture Liu Jian.

Those who stayed in urban areas were given free treatment if they were diagnosed or suspected of having contracted SARS, said Liu, who is also director of the rural division of the national anti-SARS headquarters.

(China Daily June 21, 2003)